Take home share
TAKE HOME SHARE
Kantar Worldpanel: 52 w/e 1 January 2017
  Value this year (£m)  % y-o-y Volume this year kg (m)  % y-o-y
Wrapped Bread   1,377 -3.4 2738.7 -2.8
Breakfast   556 4.6 660.4 4.7
Rolls   461 -0.9 628.7 -1.2
Tea Break   366 2.4 382.9 1.9
Sandwich Alternatives   348 -7.2 367.5 -3.5
Meal Accompaniment Breads   210 8.2 241.0 6.6
Chilled Breads   206 5.9 197.0 5.2
Freshly Baked Bread   204 -4.0 325.9 -6.1
Total 3,728 -0.7 5542.1 -1.1

· The continued decline of wrapped bread weighs heavily on the performance of bakery overall. Shoppers are eschewing traditional wrapped bread in favour of more exciting alternatives, but wrapped loaves have also been affected by a 2% drop in prices year on year as the multiples cut the price of own label to fight the discounters.

· Sandwich alternatives, in strong growth last year, are declining at 7.2%, fuelled by prices dropping an average of 3p per kg and falling promotional levels.

· Consumers have been put off by higher prices in this more discretionary sector and are transferring significant proportions of their spend to the breakfast and tea break categories.

· Meal accompaniment breads have continued to grow strongly, growing faster in branded than own label. However, 60% of growth is a result of spend simply being redirected from other categories.

· Take-home bakery products at lunchtime are less prominent due to the increased popularity of eating out, and fewer people are planning bakery-specific occasions such as eating a homemade sandwich for lunch.

Joe Shaw Roberts, Kantar Worldpanel

Brands vs own label
BRANDS VS OWN LABEL
Kantar Worldpanel: 52 w/e 1 January 2017
           
  Value this year (£m)  % y-o-y Volume this year kg (m)  Share %  % y-o-y
Branded 1858.1 -3.6 2,803.4 100 -5.6
Own label 1,870.3 2.3 2,738.7 100 4.1
Retail share
RETAIL SHARE
Kantar Worldpanel: 52 w/e 1 January 2017
  TRADING     VALUE
Retailers grocery category index y-o-y%
Independents & Symbols   1.1 2 181.8 -6.1
The Co-Operative   5.2 8.5 163.5 4.3
Marks & Spencer   3.5 3.8 108.6 4.8
Asda   13.3 14.2 106.8 -4.4
Morrisons   10 10.5 105.0 -4.5
Tesco   25.2 25.8 102.4 -1.5
Sainsbury's   14.2 14.2 100.0 0.5
Iceland   2.1 2.1 100.0 -1.8
Aldi   5.3 5.2 98.1 6.7
Lidl   3.9 3.7 94.9 15.5
Waitrose   5 4.7 94.0 6.4
Farm Foods   0.6 0.5 83.3 -5.3
Ocado 1.2 1 83.3 30.2
Bargain Stores   2.2 0.5 22.7 9.9
BREAD BESTSELLERS
IRI: 52 w/e 25 February 2017
  VALUE VOLUME AVERAGE PRICE
  £m y-o-y% kgs (m) y-o-y% £/kg y-o-y%
Warburtons £467.2 -11.0 290.0 -12.2 £1.61 1.4
Hovis £275.0 1.3 209.4 -4.2 £1.31 5.7
Kingsmill £260.6 -0.5 209.4 -1.4 £1.24 1.0
Own Label £184.7 8.2 186.3 7.6 £0.99 0.6
Roberts Bakery £48.4 -1.9 36.1 0.3 £1.34 -2.1
Sunnyvale £34.9 -12.5 23.2 -11.2 £1.50 -1.4
Garth Bakery £17.9 -12.1 3.5 -12.4 £5.09 0.4
John Dwyer £13.3 15.3 7.1 16.3 £1.87 -0.9
Allinson £12.7 -11.7 7.9 -16.5 £1.62 5.8
Weight Watchers £10.0 -13.7 4.7 -11.3 £2.14 -2.7

· Bread has lost an even bigger slice with £51.4m wiped off its bestsellers’ sales, despite a standout year for own label. 

· Warburtons was the biggest casualty from the sliced loaf’s fall from favour, with a £57.6m loss. The brand even muscled in on the protein trend in an attempt to recoup sales. 

· At least it’s sticking to its pricing guns, with a 1.4% increase per kilo. This tactic paid off for Hovis, whose 5.7% increase in average price drove value gains for the brand despite a drop in volumes. This was partly thanks to it pushing pricier Seed Sensations.

· Kingsmill’s loss was below market average, thanks in part to NPD such as Super Toasty.

Baked goods bestsellers
BAKED GOODS BESTSELLERS
IRI: 52 w/e 25 February 2017
  VALUE VOLUME AVERAGE PRICE
  £m y-o-y% items y-o-y% £/item y-o-y%
Own Label £618.8 -3.0 3,350.5 -0.1 £0.18 -2.9
Warburtons £187.9 -4.4 1,213.6 -5.4 £0.15 1.1
New York Bakery £61.2 1.9 237.1 7.9 £0.26 -5.6
Kingsmill £51.1 -22.4 407.1 -22.3 £0.13 -0.2
Soreen £33.9 0.9 73.7 22.8 £0.46 -17.8
Mission £30.9 -3.7 196.8 1.1 £0.16 -4.8
Brioche Pasquier £26.1 0.4 128.2 -8.1 £0.20 9.2
Old El Paso £14.4 19.7 85.8 12.1 £0.17 6.8
Haywood & Padgett £10.4 -13.0 92.6 -14.2 £0.11 1.4
Genius £9.3 42.2 16.4 52.1 £0.56 -6.5

· In a gloomy sector for many players, gluten-free brand Genius outperformed the market with value up 42.2%, following the expansion of its range with Gluten Free Bagels. It also recently unveiled a new breakfast biscuit trio to help drive sales further.

· Meanwhile, the sector’s big guns are struggling. Warbies’ baked goods, including its Giant Crumpets, lost £8.6m – a far cry from the impressive gains of a year ago, despite big investment in adverts. 

· New York Bakery has driven hefty volume growth through lower prices. It’s a similar story for Soreen, which has been pushing smaller snacking formats, resulting in unit sales rising by more than a fifth.