● Frozen is flat in value for the second year, behind competitive areas like fresh and chilled. Deflation hasn’t been as big a factor here compared with other macro categories.
● However, prices have fallen more for branded goods, by 1.8%, compared with own label, which has seen average prices rise by 0.8%. The proportion of sales going through the till on promotion is falling, driven in part by the reduction in multibuys.
● Packs are getting smaller, falling from 179g on average to 177g over the past two years, although this trend is not exclusive to frozen.
● Brands’ decline is partly driven by the discounters, whose own-label offerings are outperforming the market, but also by the differing fortunes of own label vs brands within the big four retailers.
● Own label is growing in all the big four, especially Morrisons, which has seen sales of own-label ranges rise 3.7%. Waitrose has seen significant sales from its new 1 range in frozen, particularly from ice cream.
● Birds Eye is still the biggest brand, despite losing 1.1% of its value, followed by McCain, which is up 0.3%, and Unilever Ice Cream (down 0.6%).
Adam Gilham/Kantar Worldpanel
TAKE HOME SHARE | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Kantar Worldpane: 52 w/e 29 January 2017 | ||||
TOTAL | VALUE | VOLUME | ||
£m | y-o-y% | kgs (m) | y-o-y% | |
Ice Cream | 907.7 | 2.9 | 352.8 | 2.9 |
Fish | 843.5 | -0.5 | 131.3 | -1.7 |
Potatoes | 690.6 | 2.3 | 458.2 | -1.3 |
Other Meats | 603.3 | -4.9 | 179.1 | -0.6 |
Vegetables | 501.4 | -0.4 | 311.1 | 1.3 |
Ready Meals | 469.1 | -2.9 | 129.5 | -5.3 |
Pizza | 423.5 | -1.0 | 112.5 | 0.4 |
Processed Poultry | 404.1 | -5.7 | 94.6 | 0.6 |
Desserts | 288.6 | 12.6 | 72.1 | 7.1 |
Sav Bakery | 285.3 | -1.2 | 114.4 | 2.4 |
Veg Protein | 127.4 | 5.6 | 24.6 | 5.7 |
Red Meat | 118.2 | 0.1 | 26.0 | 0.0 |
Snacks | 63.5 | 4.1 | 12.2 | -6.9 |
Total Frozen | 5,739.5 | 0.0 | 2,021.5 | 0.3 |
BRANDS VS OWN LABEL | ||||
Kantar Worldpane: 52 w/e 29 January 2017 | ||||
VALUE | VOLUME | |||
£m | y-o-y% | kgs (m) | y-o-y% | |
Branded | 2,693.0 | -1.7 | 800.3 | -0.3 |
Own label | 3,045.5 | 1.6 | 1,220.9 | 0.7 |
RETAIL SHARE | ||||
Kantar Worldpane: 52 w/e 29 January 2017 | ||||
TRADING | VALUE | |||
retailers | grocery | Category | index | y-o-y% |
Iceland | 2.2 | 16.5 | 762.0 | 2.2 |
Aldi | 5.3 | 5.9 | 111.3 | 6.5 |
Asda | 13.2 | 13.1 | 99.0 | -5.2 |
Lidl | 4.0 | 3.8 | 96.2 | 2.3 |
Tesco | 25.2 | 24.1 | 95.7 | 0.8 |
Morrisons | 10.0 | 8.6 | 86.3 | -1.4 |
Sainsbury's | 14.2 | 11.8 | 83.2 | -2.5 |
The Co-Operative | 5.2 | 3.8 | 73.2 | 0.4 |
Waitrose | 5.0 | 3.2 | 64.3 | 1.1 |
Marks & Spencer | 3.5 | 0.9 | 25.6 | -7.0 |
FROZEN BESTSELLERS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IRI: 52 w/e 25 March 2017 | ||||||
Total Market | VALUE | VOLUME | AVERAGE PRICE | |||
£m | y-o-y% | kgs (m) | y-o-y% | £/kg | y-o-y% | |
Birds Eye | £450.8 | -4.1 | 109.6 | 0.5 | 4.11 | -4.5 |
McCain | £328.9 | 1.2 | 155.0 | 0.0 | 2.12 | 1.2 |
Magnum | £169.0 | 1.0 | 24.5 | -2.5 | 6.91 | 3.6 |
Youngs | £161.8 | -2.4 | 25.1 | -4.8 | 6.44 | 2.5 |
Aunt Bessies | £142.5 | -6.6 | 50.7 | -10.5 | 2.81 | 4.4 |
Chicago Town | £110.8 | -2.2 | 24.9 | -1.6 | 4.46 | -0.6 |
Ben & Jerrys | £94.3 | -3.9 | 15.6 | -6.4 | 6.03 | 2.6 |
Quorn | £74.8 | 6.3 | 13.4 | 3.8 | 5.59 | 2.4 |
Goodfella's | £67.7 | 1.9 | 15.9 | 7.7 | 4.26 | -5.3 |
Haagen Dasz | £50.7 | 19.5 | 8.4 | 21.9 | 6.02 | -2.0 |
● Frozen food’s biggest spenders’ investment in traditional advertising space has dipped overall as spend continues to migrate to digital channels.
● That’s not to say conventional media is losing its relevance. Birds Eye, Chicago Town, Aunt Bessie’s and Young’s have all forked out more in the past year as they’ve sort to justify their freezer space.
● Big spending Birds Eye stumped up the most, enlisting Patsy Kensit to front TV ads for its peas and announcing the return of Captain Birds Eye in ads for its ‘Best Ever’ Cod Fillets.
● Young’s is focusing on its premium Gastro range in advertisements, featuring feline ambassador Malcolm the Cat.
Frozen Food - 1st March 2016 - 28th February 2017 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Media | TOTAL | Cinema | Outdoor | Press | Radio | TV | |
Brands | Spend (£) | Y-O-Y | % | % | % | % | % |
Birds Eye | 10.3 | 12.4% | 20.1% | 3.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 75.9% |
McCain | 6.2 | -33.4% | 0.0% | 31.3% | 7.9% | 0.0% | 60.9% |
Chicago Town | 3.0 | 53.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 99.6% |
Aunt Bessie's | 1.6 | 120.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 0.0% | 93.0% |
Young's | 1.4 | 64.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% | 98.4% |
Dr. Oetker Ristorante | 0.9 | -73.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 98.2% |
Pukka Pies | 0.8 | 1146.2% | 0.0% | 99.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Goodfella's | 0.7 | -52.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 99.5% |
Slimming World | 0.2 | 317.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Men's Health Kitchen | 0.1 | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
TOTAL (Top 10) | 22.0 | -10.4% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 77.0% |