Only four of the top 10 brands managed to boost category value this year. 

Star baking brand this year was Tate & Lyle, which achieved £17.9m value sales growth. While all the other big brands faced a volume decline, Tate & Lyle sold an extra 15.1 million units following a drive to re-engage shoppers.

Silver Spoon was worst hit of the top 10 brands, selling 17.6 million fewer units this year and falling in value by £13m.

Baking fruits giant Whitworths experienced the second-highest growth, boosting sales by £2.7m. Benefiting from growth within dried fruit, nuts and seeds, it shifted a further 216,000 units this year. “This was fuelled by an increased understanding of the nutritional properties of seeds, and the recent focus on baking with healthier ingredients,” says Phil Gowland, marketing director at Whitworths.

Betty Crocker achieved 3.6% sales growth this year, adding £1.4m in value partially thanks to the expansion of the decorations subcategory. “Traditional big cakes and icings show the highest growth and remain very popular,” says Kat Jones, marketing director for Betty Crocker.

Source: Nielsen 52 w/e 19 May 2018

Home baking has returned to growth this year thanks to price inflation and population growth, but consumers are shopping less frequently and buying fewer packs per trip as pack sizes increase.

Cake coverings and other baking ingredients were the only subcategory driving volume, with baking fruit unit sales in decline and holding back total category growth. 

Price inflation has been faster in home baking than other grocery as manufacturers increase base prices to adjust to higher costs, and retailers cut back on promotions. 

Brands now account for almost half (43%) of total spend and are growing at the same steady rate as own label. However, brand growth is reliant on price inflation.

Government messaging around 100-calorie snacks, plus the sugar tax, means the health trend is expected to grow further and trickle down to NPD. 

Manufacturers will also look to reduce plastic waste in response to increasingly environmentally conscious shoppers while also keeping up with demand for convenient formats.

Claire Liboureau, Kantar Worldpanel

Source: Kantar Worldpanel 52 w/e 25 March 2018