Shopper intelligence
Source: Shopper Intelligence survey of 596 UK category shoppers September 2018  
                 
  Tesco Sainsbury's  Asda Morrisons Waitrose M&S Aldi Lidl
Quality 74% 76% 80% 79% 78% 87% 90% 76%
Great Price 64% 54% 72% 70% 32% 46% 91% 82%
                 
Shopper Intelligence is an annual multi Category, multi Retailer survey of UK shoppers.  Enquiries to www.shopperintelligence.com.

Unlike other retailers, Aldi has managed to marry price with quality perceptions. Most of its biscuit volume is in its Belmont brand, which delivers imitations of big-name brands at much better prices. Aldi has also added high-end Specially Selected lines, which are equal to the best the big four have to offer. 

As well as a competitive price, retailers need to offer distinctiveness. One of the retailers excelling at this is Marks & Spencer, whose standard own-label range isn’t just copying brands (for instance its Jaffa Cake range is available in four flavours). This works alongside its premium The Collection range. 

Jeremy Garlick, partner, Insight Traction

Average prices on the rise: top cake sectors by value
Top cake sectors by value 
  Value (£m) % change
 Small Cakes   528.9 3.6
 Whole Cake   342.8 1.4
 Slices   106.2 4.8
 Mince Pies   100.8 11.3
 Small Tarts   89.6 -3.3
 Small Swiss Roll   66.6 -2.4
 Cake Bars   62.6 34.5
 Muffins   57.6 1.1
     
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, 52 w/e 17 Jun 2018
     
Brands vs Own Label  
  Value (£m) % change
Branded 549.2 3.6
Own Label  917.2 5.3

The majority of cake sectors are seeing price increases, though cake portions, flapjacks and small swiss rolls each saw average price declines. In total, average prices rose 3.2% across cakes, with both brands and retailers hiking prices 1.4% and 4% respectively. 

There has been a slight increase in the proportion of sales on promotion with more of a focus on volume deals, which is driving both volume and value growth in the market. 

Both private label (up 5.3%) and branded cakes (up 3.6%) are seeing year-on-year growth, with private label outperforming brands, boosted by the rise of the discounters and bargain stores. 

Among branded cakes, Fibre One, McVitie's and Cadbury contributed the most to value sales this year, while Tesco Value cake bars drove value sales within private label (though the sector still lost 7.8% in value sales year on year). 

Innovation will be key to brands in the coming year as means of responding to the ever-evolving private label market. Health is also set to become more front of mind across many fmcg categories, and with the government's focus on reducing sugar, developing healthier cake options that still function as treats will pose a challenge. 

Aimee Benson, Kantar Worldpanel

Mary Berry makes an impact: top ten cake brands by value
Nielsen top ten cake brands by value this year
  Value (£m) % y-o-y
Mr Kipling 150.1 -1.3
Cadbury 77.5 -6.8
Mcvities 36.1 -2.3
Soreen 35.2 1.4
Thorntons 22.0 -13.6
Mrs Crimbles 9.0 -5.8
Bonne Maman 8.3 14.2
Graze 7.6 18.8
Regal 6.0 27.8
Mary Berry 5.4 5965.3
     
Source: Nielsen, 52 w/e 14th July 2018

"Although many of the top brands are declining in a growing market, we are seeing certain brands trying to reinvigorate themselves," says Steven Hansell, senior analytics executive at Nielsen. "Mr Kipling's new range of no-added sugar variants and Roald Dahl-themed cakes are prime examples of this."

Mary Berry had a strong first year in the cake category, achieving £5.4m across the total market with SKUs like Berry's signature Lemon Drizzle Cake and a Banana Fudge Loaf. 

Graze's flapjack range also saw great growth this year, with value sales soaring 18.8% to £7.6m on volumes up 35.9%. The brand added new Berry Protein flapjacks in April, and is set to launch new Oat Millionaire bars later this month. 

"The category has seen some exciting NPD of late," says Hansell. "Among them is McVitie's new Moments range, which aims to modernise the category through its café-culture style offerings." 

Cadbury sales dipped the furthest out of the top 10 brands this year, down £5.7m (6.8%) on volumes down 3.9%. In an effort to revive sales, the brand launched Cadbury's Heroes cupcakes in January, which it states has amassed £1.2m in sales in eight months. "Cupcakes have been a key trend for a sustained period now," says Richard Martin, general manager of treats at Premier Foods. "The new range brings the much-loved Heroes brand into cake for the first time."

Healthy growth: top ten biscuit brands by value sales
Nielsen top ten biscuit brands  
  Value (£m) % change
Mcvities Choc Digestives 127.4 1.7
Belvita 73.1 -8.8
Kit Kat 72.8 -5.9
Nature Valley 52.3 20.3
Mcvities Jaffa 51.4 -1.6
Oreo 44.5 -13.5
Mcvities Hobnobs 41.2 -3.2
Go Ahead 40.8 6.1
Maryland 40.6 -8.3
Mcvities Digestives 39.6 -1.2
     
Source: Nielsen, 52 w/e 14th July 2018  

Brits are getting all virtuous when it comes to their biscuit choices. So it stands to reason that brands that have innovated for this crowd have made the largest gains. McVitie’s, for example, has added £26m to its total value since launching Thins in January 2017.

“Healthier biscuits have seen the strongest growth within the category, bolstered by launches like Ferrero’s Nutella B-Ready and the likes of Graze and Goodness Knows entering the sector this year,” says Steven Hansell, senior analytics executive at Nielsen. “General Mills’ Nature Valley has also driven incremental sales through its focus on products with additional benefits like protein and fibre.”

Those without healthy innovation have struggled. Take Kit Kat, whose sales dipped £4.6m this year on a 10.6% fall in volume. The brand is hoping to get back on track with a raft of innovation, including pink Kit Kats made with ruby cocoa beans and a premium Kit Kat Senses sharing box. 

Maryland, meanwhile, has pinned its hopes on a £1m ‘What would you do for a Maryland Cookie?’ campaign, launched at the start of this year. Running across TV, digital and social media, the campaign emphasises the use of cookies as a social currency, championing the core 10g cookie and aiming to drive sales across the brand’s wider Minis and Big & Chunky lines.

Treats in growth: top biscuit sectors by value
Top biscuit sectors by value   
  Value (£m) % change
 Everyday Treats   427.3 6.2
 Chocolate Biscuit Bars   371.1 2.0
 Crackers & Crispbreads   361.4 1.7
 Cereal+Fruit Bars   328.5 7.1
 Everyday Biscuits   320.1 3.5
 Healthier Biscuits   235.1 5.8
Confectionery biscuits 197.4 11.4
 Special Treats   189.6 2.7
     
(FYI: Confectionery biscuits include the likes of Twix and KitKat)
Source: Kantar Worldpanel, 52 w/e 17 June 2018
     
Brands vs Own Label  
  Value (£m) % y-o-y
Branded 2034.3 2.2
Own Label 829.5 9.4

Seasonal biscuits contributed almost £15m in additional value sales this year, joining confectionery biscuits and cereal and fruit bars as the fastest-growing sectors in the category. 

The past 12 months have seen a continuation of last year's key trends, including the growth of 'treaty' biscuits. Everyday treats and chocolate biscuit bars generate the most in terms of value sales, accounting for a third of total biscuit sales. The only category in decline within biscuits is savoury, down 8.5%. 

Growth in value sales of biscuits can largely be attributed to an increase in the average price, with shoppers paying more for both branded and private label lines. Of this year's total biscuits sales, 60% were not sold on promotion, with the split of promoted/non-promoted sales the same year on year. 

Both private label and branded biscuits have continue to grow in value sales. However, private label does so at a faster rate. Aldi's own-label healthy biscuits range is helping to drive private label sales overall, though the retailers enjoying the strongest growth are Asda and Tesco. 

The brands contributing the most to the growth of sweet biscuits are McVitie's and Fox's, though both saw a small year-on-year value decline. 

Kali Terracall, Kantar Worldpanel