Frozen food value sales | ||
---|---|---|
Value (m) | % change | |
Ice cream | 1110.9 | 12.7 |
Fish | 911.3 | 1.6 |
Potatoes | 747.0 | 3.3 |
Vegetables | 542.5 | 1.7 |
Poultry | 538.3 | 1.8 |
Meals | 499.4 | -1.2 |
Pizza | 479.1 | 5.0 |
Savoury Bakery | 298.1 | -1.7 |
Veg protein | 157.9 | 8.8 |
Red Meat | 135.3 | 4.1 |
Snacks | 74.4 | 11.4 |
Five fastest growing retailers | ||
% change | ||
Lidl | 15.2% | |
Aldi | 9.0% | |
Ocado | 6.5% | |
Morrisons | 3.6% | |
Asda | 3.3% | |
Source: Kantar, 52 w/e 27 January 2019 |
It's been another strong year for frozen. Value sales have climbed 3.4% to £6.3bn, representing a continuation in its turnaround. So what's driving this?
"Growth this year is driven by a combination of factors," says Kantar analyst Jamie MacLeman. "Inflation is still a key driver of growth but it is less of a talking point than it was last year. A hot summer with plenty of barbecues and the World Cup excitement was also a big boost."
Red meat is one example of inflation, with average price per pack rising 2.8% amid rising raw material costs. Tub ice cream also saw average prices rise at 3.9%, though this was more a result of premium NPD and pack size reductions.
Ice cream was the area of strongest growth, adding more than £125m to the frozen market. "Without ice cream, frozen food category growth would be halved to 1.6%," adds MacLeman.
Both branded and own label sales are up 3.4% in value, but that masks a very different story in volume. While branded volumes have only edged up 0.6%, own label has stormed ahead with 4% growth.
"Private label has barely seen an impact from inflation," says MacLeman. "Possibly as a consequence, brands have lost volume share across many categories."
Aldi and Lidl secured the fastest growth in own label sales, with value up 8.7% and 10.6% respectively. Iceland also performed strongly in this area.
How consumers shop frozen: planned versus impulse | ||
---|---|---|
% of purchases that are planned | % of purchases that are impulse | |
Vegetables | 86% | 14% |
Potato & Chips | 84% | 16% |
Fruit | 74% | 26% |
Pizza | 74% | 26% |
Vegetarian Food | 72% | 28% |
Meat, Fish & Poultry | 70% | 30% |
Ice cream and Frozen Desserts | 66% | 34% |
Ready Meals | 64% | 36% |
Source: Shopper Intelligence survey of 109,340 consumers, a minimum of 400 shoppers per category |
Top 10 frozen brands | ||
---|---|---|
Value (m) | % change | |
Birds Eye | 489.5 | 2.7% |
McCain | 320.6 | 0.2% |
Magnum | 194.3 | 11.2% |
Young's | 163.5 | -3.6% |
Aunt Bessie's | 144 | 1.3% |
Chicago Town | 116.1 | 0.3% |
Ben & Jerry's | 104.3 | -6.1% |
Haagen Dazs | 83.5 | 26.3% |
Slimming World | 75.7 | 11.2% |
Goodfella's | 72.8 | 0.0% |
Source: Nielsen, 52 w/e 20 April 2019 |
Never underestimate the power of a scorching summer. “Frozen’s performance in 2018 was bolstered by extremely good weather, and ice cream sales saw a particular boost,” says Nielsen senior account manager Anne Partanen-Willis.
Magnum, in particular, should be thanking the heatwave for its market-leading £23m gain. The brand has also been able to pass through higher prices without denting demand with big marketing investment and new vegan and super-indulgent lines.
For every action, a reaction. Magnum’s growing presence in the tubs market has dented the performance of Unilever stablemate Ben & Jerry’s, which suffered a £4.1m decline.
A similar pattern can be seen in the performances of rivals Birds Eye and Young’s. As the former has reinvigorated its core fish, chicken and veg offerings, Young’s fish products have struggled.
Young’s says it is arresting the decline with new on-pack messaging, which highlights it is a natural source of omega-3, alongside the launch of a range of new flavoured fillets under the Gastro banner.
Aunt Bessie’s, meanwhile, has turned in a flat performance as it finds itself up against a resurgent own label market.
However, new owner Nomad is gearing up for the launch of a raft of new, premium products and a big marketing push.
Birds Eye | £15,689,619 | 5.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.60% | 0.00% | 99.40% |
McCain | £7,188,177 | -15.13% | 2.80% | 11.90% | 7.10% | 2.80% | 75.40% |
Dr. Oetker Ristorante | £3,071,666 | 296.60% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 8.10% | 91.80% |
Aunt Bessie's | £2,815,496 | 1277.79% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.20% | 0.00% | 97.80% |
Chicago Town | £734,549 | ######### | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.60% | 99.40% | 0.00% |
Slimming World | £57,000 | 239.55% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Goodfella's | £32,325 | -16.27% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Dr. Oetker Yes It's Pizza | £16,844 | 346.79% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Boxed | £12,559 | - | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Gressingham | £7,635 | - | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
TOTAL (Top 10) | £14,006,944 | 47.11% | 1.40% | 6.10% | 5.40% | 8.40% | 78.70% |