Kantar: frozen value sales
Frozen food value sales  
  Value (m) % change
Ice cream 1110.9 12.7
Fish   911.3 1.6
Potatoes   747.0 3.3
Vegetables   542.5 1.7
Poultry   538.3 1.8
Meals   499.4 -1.2
Pizza   479.1 5.0
Savoury Bakery   298.1 -1.7
Veg protein   157.9 8.8
Red Meat   135.3 4.1
Snacks   74.4 11.4
Five fastest growing retailers  
  % change  
Lidl   15.2%  
Aldi   9.0%  
Ocado 6.5%  
Morrisons   3.6%  
Asda   3.3%  
     
Source: Kantar, 52 w/e 27 January 2019    

It's been another strong year for frozen. Value sales have climbed 3.4% to £6.3bn, representing a continuation in its turnaround. So what's driving this? 

"Growth this year is driven by a combination of factors," says Kantar analyst Jamie MacLeman. "Inflation is still a key driver of growth but it is less of a talking point than it was last year. A hot summer with plenty of barbecues and the World Cup excitement was also a big boost." 

Red meat is one example of inflation, with average price per pack rising 2.8% amid rising raw material costs. Tub ice cream also saw average prices rise at 3.9%, though this was more a result of premium NPD and pack size reductions. 

Ice cream was the area of strongest growth, adding more than £125m to the frozen market. "Without ice cream, frozen food category growth would be halved to 1.6%," adds MacLeman. 

Both branded and own label sales are up 3.4% in value, but that masks a very different story in volume. While branded volumes have only edged up 0.6%, own label has stormed ahead with 4% growth.

"Private label has barely seen an impact from inflation," says MacLeman. "Possibly as a consequence, brands have lost volume share across many categories."

Aldi and Lidl secured the fastest growth in own label sales, with value up 8.7% and 10.6% respectively. Iceland also performed strongly in this area.

How consumers shop frozen
How consumers shop frozen: planned versus impulse  
  % of purchases that are planned % of purchases that are impulse
Vegetables 86% 14%
Potato & Chips 84% 16%
Fruit 74% 26%
Pizza 74% 26%
Vegetarian Food 72% 28%
Meat, Fish & Poultry 70% 30%
Ice cream and Frozen Desserts 66% 34%
Ready Meals 64% 36%
     
Source: Shopper Intelligence survey of 109,340 consumers, a minimum of 400 shoppers per category  
Scorching summer boosts frozen brands
Top 10 frozen brands  
     
  Value (m) % change
Birds Eye 489.5 2.7%
McCain 320.6 0.2%
Magnum 194.3 11.2%
Young's 163.5 -3.6%
Aunt Bessie's 144 1.3%
Chicago Town 116.1 0.3%
Ben & Jerry's 104.3 -6.1%
Haagen Dazs 83.5 26.3%
Slimming World 75.7 11.2%
Goodfella's 72.8 0.0%
     
Source: Nielsen, 52 w/e 20 April 2019

Never underestimate the power of a scorching summer. “Frozen’s performance in 2018 was bolstered by extremely good weather, and ice cream sales saw a particular boost,” says Nielsen senior account manager Anne Partanen-Willis.


Magnum, in particular, should be thanking the heatwave for its market-leading £23m gain. The brand has also been able to pass through higher prices without denting demand with big marketing investment and new vegan and super-indulgent lines.


For every action, a reaction. Magnum’s growing presence in the tubs market has dented the performance of Unilever stablemate Ben & Jerry’s, which suffered a £4.1m decline.


A similar pattern can be seen in the performances of rivals Birds Eye and Young’s. As the former has reinvigorated its core fish, chicken and veg offerings, Young’s fish products have struggled.


Young’s says it is arresting the decline with new on-pack messaging, which highlights it is a natural source of omega-3, alongside the launch of a range of new flavoured fillets under the Gastro banner.


Aunt Bessie’s, meanwhile, has turned in a flat performance as it finds itself up against a resurgent own label market.
However, new owner Nomad is gearing up for the launch of a raft of new, premium products and a big marketing push.

Top 10 frozen advertisers
        
Birds Eye £15,689,619 5.41% 0.00% 0.00% 0.60% 0.00% 99.40%
McCain £7,188,177 -15.13% 2.80% 11.90% 7.10% 2.80% 75.40%
Dr. Oetker Ristorante £3,071,666 296.60% 0.00% 0.00% 0.10% 8.10% 91.80%
Aunt Bessie's £2,815,496 1277.79% 0.00% 0.00% 2.20% 0.00% 97.80%
Chicago Town £734,549 ######### 0.00% 0.00% 0.60% 99.40% 0.00%
Slimming World £57,000 239.55% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Goodfella's £32,325 -16.27% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Dr. Oetker Yes It's Pizza £16,844 346.79% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Boxed £12,559 - 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Gressingham £7,635 - 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
TOTAL (Top 10) £14,006,944 47.11% 1.40% 6.10% 5.40% 8.40% 78.70%