However, the Global Retail Concentration 2004 report from analyst PlanetRetail does not take into account mergers, acquisitions or new market entries, so Tesco could surpass its forecast before then.
“Tesco is looking at markets such as Russia and Greece so we can expect faster growth than we have forecast,” said Bryan Roberts, PlanetRetail’s global retail research manager.
The report estimated that
Tesco held a 1.3% share of the global market in 2003 which, said Roberts, hinged on its success at localising international operations.
The report also estimated that the top six global retailers - Wal-Mart, Carrefour, Ahold, Metro, Kroger and Tesco - commanded a 15.4% global market share in 2003 which could swell to 19.9% by 2008. Their dominance, Roberts noted, was largely rooted in the success of their domestic operations.
Wal-Mart held a 6.7% global market share in 2003 and in the medium term at least, Roberts said, companies “do not stand a chance” of toppling the giant.
Separate PlanetRetail analysis has shown that smaller formats accounted for most of the growth of the world’s top 30 grocery retailers. Although hypermarkets and discount formats were successful in new markets, in the past five years convenience and other small stores have driven the 22% growth in total grocery store numbers to 139,000.