The only reason for bread prices to fall in the next three months will be increased retail competition, warn crop experts the Home Grown Cereals Authority, as wheat prices are set to remain high. New figures released on the quality of this year’s breadmaking wheat harvest show protein content has dropped and water content increased compared with the early harvest, which was not as badly affected by bad weather in late summer.

“We’ve probably already seen most of this year’s breadmaking wheat, so its hefty premium versus feed wheat is likely to remain for at least another three months, as the rest of Europe assesses its harvests,” said HGCA director of crop marketing Alastair Dickie. Data from The Grocer 33 showed bread prices in the big four supermarkets fell 5.6% last month, despite breadmaking wheat prices remaining high.