Invest now in food production capacity



Philip Richardson Farmer, Norfolk

Sir; Rising world food prices have provoked a spate of comment on future food security. Your columnists Tim Lang and Kevin Hawkins may disagree on the means to achieve the level of world food output that we shall need, but both agree that despite short term problems the world has sufficient capacity to feed its expanding population. The first post-war green revolution saw world productivity double within a generation. Our need for food over the next generation will more than double again, and there are no magic bullets. In most developed countries crop and animal research budgets have been cut and there are evident bottlenecks in transferring high science into practical operation. Some technologies with potential to increase yields, such as genetic modification, are held back by public perception. Huge strides to reduce agricultural protectionism across the world have been made in recent years. Global trade offers a good deal to consumers, at least in the short term. What is conveniently forgotten is that protection for agricultural production sprang from a need to increase food production by offering price security and stability to small producers. Unstable prices increase the risk of business failure and lead to lower investment and lower intensity of farming. While conservationists may see this as beneficial, de-intensification on a world scale simply exacerbates the likelihood of a worldwide food crisis. All of this may sound excessively Malthusian. I would simply ask whether the human race can afford to take the risk, this time, that Malthus may have been right. We must surely recognise the urgent need for research and for new economic systems that encourage investment in food production capacity. Twenty or 30 years from now our children may curse us if we do not.