As we look ahead to 2026, the UK waste and recycling industry stands on the brink of a transformative era.
The government’s recent decisions on landfill tax and plastic packaging tax (PPT) reforms signal both progress and missed opportunities, setting the stage for what could be a watershed moment for the sector.
Ministers have listened to stakeholders and made the best choice for the industry, by resisting calls to converge the two rates of landfill tax before 2030.
This is more than a technical tweak: it’s a pragmatic move that avoids unintended consequences such as increased waste crime and tax evasion. Retaining exemptions for backfilling quarries will also help housebuilders deliver much-needed homes without inflating costs, a reminder that waste policy doesn’t operate in isolation but underpins wider economic priorities.
The missed packaging opportunity
Yet, while stability on landfill tax is welcome, there is a missed opportunity regarding packaging reform. The government’s commitment to consult on the Packaging Waste Recycling Note (PRN) system and introduce mandatory certification for mechanically recycled plastic under PPT reforms is encouraging. Tackling fraud and tax evasion first is sensible, but it’s only the starting point. The inflation-linked increase in PPT for 2026-27 does not go far enough.
If we are serious about creating a circular economy, we need a progressive tax structure that makes virgin plastic more expensive than recycled material. Anything less risks locking the industry into incremental change when what’s needed is systemic reform.
Why does 2026 matter so much? Because it’s the year when momentum is building on multiple strands of policy, from extended producer responsibility (EPR) to deposit return schemes (DRS). Although DRS is not scheduled to commence until 2027, substantial development work will take place throughout 2026, alongside the appointment of the producer-run organisation (PRO).
Retailers and manufacturers will face new obligations, and the economics of packaging will shift decisively. For grocery businesses, this isn’t just a compliance challenge – it’s a strategic opportunity. Those who invest early in recycled content, redesign packaging for recyclability, and build transparent, more resilient supply chains will reduce the cost of EPR and gain a competitive edge in a market where sustainability credentials increasingly drive consumer choice.
Turning point
The stakes are high. Biffa’s own economic modelling, published last week, shows that progressive plastic reforms, alongside a ban on exporting unprocessed waste, could create over 9,000 jobs and deliver £900m in annual economic output, all without public funding. That’s a compelling case for government to go further and faster.
Of course, ambition must be matched by infrastructure. The UK needs significant investment in advanced recycling facilities, supported by clear, consistent policy signals. This is where collaboration becomes critical. Retailers, brands, and waste operators must work together to achieve this.
So, what should industry leaders do now?
We need to work collaboratively through consultations on PRN reform and PPT certification, and use 2026 as a milestone to continue building circularity into commercial business models.
The next 12 months will define whether 2026 becomes a turning point or a missed opportunity. Government has taken some sensible steps, but incrementalism will not deliver a circular economy. We need bold, systemic reform – starting with a tax framework that makes virgin plastic less attractive than recycled alternatives, and a clear roadmap for investment in UK recycling infrastructure.
Carla Brian is head of partnerships at Biffa
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