oil prices

The pound hit a 31-year low against the dollar and a six-and-half year low against the euro after Theresa May confirmed the trigger of article 50 in March. This is distorting price movements of commodities traded in other currencies at the moment.

European diesel prices are up 17.7% month on month in sterling terms compared with a 10.6% rise in the euro price. Diesel is rising due to an increase in crude oil prices and reduced availability caused by Opec members agreeing to cut production.

Thai rice prices are up 3% month on month, but have fallen in their native currency as global production recovers from El Niño and demand in the global market falls. Global rice production is forecast at 483.3 million tonnes, up 2% year on year in 2016/17.

Key Monthly RisesPrice in GBP per tonnem-o-m % y-o-y %Reasons for large movements
    GBP native currency  
Diesel (EU) 373.2 17.70% 10.60% 27.40% European diesel prices have risen 16% during the last month reaching their highest level in 2016, due to an increase in crude oil prices and reduced availability of diesel. Diesel’s availability was reduced by refinery maintenance and lower imports. Refineries have shut down for seasonal maintenance, while imports from Russia were reduced.
Crude Oil (ICE) (EU) 317.3 16.70% 9.70% 29.40% Crude oil prices rose at the beginning of October after OPEC members agreed to cut production for the first time in 8 years at an informal meeting. Prices were also supported by reports that the global over supply could be falling, with stock levels not as high as usual ahead of the winter demand.
Tea (LK) 3188 15.80% 15.70% 47.80% Poor weather throughout this year in Sri Lanka, one of the major tea producing countries, has reduced tea supplies causing prices to increase. Total tea production for the period from January to August 2016 fell an estimated 12% y-o-y to 199m kgs. The supply situation in the market has been further complicated by trade union protests. 
Coffee - Robusta (ICE) (EU) 1692.9 13.30% 6.50% 62.30%  
Rapeseed oil (EU) 720 12.70% 7.70% 38.00% Rapeseed oil prices remain high as global production is forecast to fall by 3% y-o-y to a 4-year low of 26.8m, EU production is also forecast to fall by 5% to 9.7m tonnes. Ending stocks are forecast to fall by 18% y-o-y to a 5-year low of 4.2m tonnes.
Key Monthly Falls Price in GBP per tonne m-o-m %   y-o-y % Reasons for large movements
    GBP native currency  
Cocoa beans (London ICE) (UK) 2193.7 -3.00% same 3.20% Cocoa bean prices fell on ICE EU, as bean production in the Ivory Coast is set to recover in 2016/17 following the end of El Nino. The increase in production is being further support by their government’s decision to cut export taxes on cocoa products.
Palm kernel oil (EU) 1032.8 -1.20% -7.20% 81.40% Palm kernel oil prices remain low m-o-m due to lower demand as prices are very high y-o-y. Global production in 2016/17 is expected to rebound from last year’s drop and is forecast at 7.6m tonnes, up 7% y-o-y. However, global consumption is only expected to increase 3% y-o-y to 7.3m tonnes.
Coconut Oil (EU) 1164 1.10% -5.10% 60.90%  
Barley - Malting (FR) 164.9 2.20% -2.40% 20.90%  
Rice (Class B) (TH)  302.9 3.00% -3.10% 24.80% Thai rice prices have fallen in the last month as global production recovers from the El Nino and demand in the global market falls.  Global rice production is forecast at 483.3m tonnes, up 2% y-o-y in 2016/17.
          The GBP
          The GBP hit a 31 year low against the USD, and a 6-and-half year low against the EUR on fears over a ‘hard Brexit’ from the EU, after Prime Minister Theresa May confirmed the formal process to leave will start by the end of March 2017. The weak GBP makes imports more expensive and distorts price movements of commodities traded in other currencies.

Source: Mintec

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