Global grain production is set to surpass the 2.1 billion tonne mark for the first time in 2016/17 following “record” harvests of wheat and maize, according to the International Grains Council.
Total grains production for 2016/17 is forecast to increase by 5% to 2,102 million tonnes in 2017, with a bigger maize crop accounting for four-fifths of the year-on-year gain, the IGC’s latest update says. Despite a “solid rise in consumption”, world grain carryover stocks are expected to rise by 33 million tonnes to 508 million, with wheat and maize inventories set to climb by about 7% each.
World soyabean output is expected to rise by 7% year on year in 2016/17 to an “all-time peak” of 336 million tonnes following improved weather in South America, according to the IGC. “In addition to record crops in the US and Brazil, better harvests are anticipated across a range of relatively small producers, including China, India and Ukraine,” it says.
Meanwhile, world rice production is forecast to increase by 2% year on year in 2016/17, with larger crops expected in “many Asian producers”, and full-season output from India likely to reach a new high.
Looking to 2017/18, the IGC predicts that global wheat production will fall 2% following a slight drop in world harvested areas and a fall in average yields.
“Firm domestic prices, including attractive levels of government support, will help to underpin sowings in some regions,” says the report.
“However, a poor outlook for profits could contribute to a switch to other crops in places, with winter wheat area in the US the lowest in more than a century.”
Barley plantings are expected to increase slightly in 2017/18 as a result of recovery in North America, where drought had an “adverse impact” in the previous season, it adds.