Prices blip but optimistic outlook for containment Cynics in the pork and bacon trades have long regarded livestock disease as the most reliable form of pig price support, and sure enough an outbreak of classical swine fever in Catalonia has occurred just at the moment when it seemed the overall EU market for pigmeat was beginning to soften after the BSE and FMD crises. Swine fever in Spain could cause worse disruption than the recent FMD outbreaks and false alarms in the UK, the Netherlands, Denmark and other member states if not brought under control quickly, because the country's pig industry is enormous. Latest census data show the Spanish breeding herd at nearly 2.6 million head, almost the same size as Germany's, and forecasts published by Brussels officials point to slaughterings of more than 36 million head this year, about 18% of total EU production. Having seen the chaos caused by the temporary shutdown of the Dutch industry, only half the size of Spain's, traders are understandably nervous as they await details of control measures and possible news of further outbreaks in Catalonia. As of midweek, reports suggested a small disposal programme had probably contained the disease, and although prices in several other member states blipped there was no sense of crisis. On the other hand, mention of a possible new price-boosting disease epidemic drew attention to the anomalous output situation in the UK. Latest official estimates of British bacon and ham production show output down about 15% from a year ago and nearly a quarter lower than in 1999. With pig availability limited and no sign of herd expansion, processors will have to pay more for stock here while the prospect on the continent is for an easier livestock market even after the Dutch oversupply is absorbed. {{M/E MEAT }}

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