A lot has happened since 2020 on a global scale. When we first started working on Tasty Mates in 2019, all the advice we received was, I’m sure, fantastic, but one piece I don’t remember getting was “watch out for world events”. You’re told to plan for the usual setbacks – cashflow, product issues, hiring headaches – but no one warns you that entire continents can shut down or that global politics might suddenly sit in your supply chain.
Yes, previous economic cycles caused challenges, but they were part of the expected rhythm. Something you factored into the plan, not something that kept you awake at night. If you were a tiny team with no payroll pressure, international events felt distant. But for businesses starting now, the idea that external factors wouldn’t be a daily consideration feels almost naive.
Brexit, Covid, wars in Europe and the Middle East, five prime ministers, supply shocks, inflation that went from historic lows to historic highs. The years between 2020 and 2025 were possibly the most tumultuous periods in a century. For a business that entered the market during the last moment of relative calm, planning for the unplannable wasn’t just difficult – it was almost impossible.
Spread the risk
We learned this quickly. Our manufacturing was based in Europe. Key ingredients were sourced from Ukraine. We launched with an airline flying to and from the Middle East less than one month before the Middle East conflict escalated. And of course, Tasty Mates itself launched at the peak of Covid after nearly a year of delays. None of this could realistically have featured in any business plan, and even the most paranoid founder at the time wouldn’t have written that scenario deck. Although now it may feel like a necessity.
But here’s the thing. For businesses starting now, what practical steps can you take to shield yourself from shocks you can’t predict? Because planning for events you don’t know about is, frankly, fantasy. Business cases packed with contingency columns and “what ifs” won’t help you outrun global instability.
The best lesson we learned, and the one I keep coming back to, is simple: don’t put all your eggs in one basket.
It sounds basic, but for a founder in the early days, efficiency is everything. One supplier, one manufacturer, one route to market – it feels tidy, cost-effective, controllable. Until the world shifts under your feet.
Diversification isn’t just a nice to have. World events happen, and often with very little warning.
If we were rebuilding from day one, we’d spread our risk far earlier. Multiple manufacturing options, even if one is slightly more expensive. Alternative ingredient sources ready to activate. A channel mix that doesn’t lean too much on one region, one retailer or one partner. And, most importantly, a mindset that assumes things will go wrong at scale.
Founders today are learning from an era defined by volatility, not stability. But that doesn’t mean you can’t build resilience into the DNA of your business. You can’t plan for the unplannable, but you can make sure that if the unexpected arrives – and if the last five years are anything to go by, it will – it doesn’t break the whole business.
Joe Woolf is founder of Tasty Mates and head of retail at HomeCooks. Read Joe’s previous lessons for startup founders here.
No comments yet