Unveiling its plans to shake up the nutrient profiling model this week, the DHSC has promised it will result in 170,000 fewer cases of childhood obesity. Does anyone really believe this?
There have been lots of promises before attached to previous legislation, including the introduction of the original NPM; the Soft Drinks Industry Levy; the HFSS promotions ban; and the recent advertising crackdown. The 2019 Transport for London advertising ban went further, claiming that the policy resulted in 94,867 fewer cases of obesity among Londoners.
Yet there is little real world evidence to suggest obesity levels are lower, quite the opposite in fact, at least as a result of these policies. (GLP-1 drugs are another matter.) So why has the government concluded that it needs to double down on the rules it devised, and to which the industry dutifully responded, with the same slavish focus on fat, salt and sugar?
The world has moved on. Take scientific consensus: it’s focused on UPFs and nutrient density. In the US, for example, new nutritional policy advises eating more protein, full-fat dairy and whole foods, and the avoidance of ultra-processed foods and free sugars. Similarly retailers and (some) suppliers in the UK are investing in clean-label and nutrient-dense innovation.
Yet the new NPM is expected to reclassify scores of nutrient-dense products including fruit juices, smoothies, yoghurts and bran-based cereals; encourages the use of UPFs as a solution; and redefines ‘free sugars’ to include naturally occurring sugars in fruit, honey and pastes. And the evidence used to justify the NPM policy changes relies on modelling from Nesta dating back to 2012 that has since been debunked by the scientist who devised it.
Is it any wonder consumers are “overwhelmed” by all the conflicting health advice? But it’s not just consumers. The DHSC briefing note explaining the changes wrongly stated that fruit juice with no added sugar was not in scope. And while everyone is debating whether banning no-added-sugar fruit juice will help tackle the obesity crisis, the tragedy is, healthier innovation is in danger of grinding to a halt.
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