The UK is sleepwalking into a major health crisis. The obesity rate has climbed from around 17% in 1995 to 30% today – and is forecast to rise to 40% by 2035. The National Food Strategy independent review (NFSIR) has warned that increasing obesity will contribute to an annual bill of £15bn for the NHS for Type 2 diabetes alone by 2035-36, which is one-and-a-half times more than the current annual cost of treating cancer.
This challenge is only made worse by food price inflation not seen since the 1970s. It is having a significant impact on household finances and access to food, contributing to a 16% increase in Trussell Trust food bank use in the past two years. Food banks provide a vital lifeline but rely on donated food, which may be unhealthy – and often provide food to people who lack the cooking skills or facilities to prepare healthy food from scratch.
Worse still, healthier foods such as cereals, milk and eggs have seen larger price rises resulting from inflation than unhealthy foods such as chocolate. Healthy foods tend to cost more per calorie, and highly processed foods are on average three times cheaper per calorie than healthy alternatives. All of this means lower-income households are having to decide between food quantity and quality, often choosing highly calorific but nutrient-poor meals to avoid hunger.
Food retailers must bear some responsibility. We found promotions of relatively low-cost high-calorie food – for example biscuits and burgers – have led to many poorer people in the UK becoming obese. This ‘junk food cycle’ starts with people enjoying unhealthy foods, then that demand being met and encouraged by supermarkets and fast food outlets, leading to an ever-greater supply of unhealthy foods to consumers.
The government’s incoming ban on volume price promotions of food high in fat, sugar and salt has been further delayed to October 2025, despite the government’s own assessment that these promotions were “extensive, deep and effective” at influencing food preferences. It is positive to see Sainsbury’s and Tesco voluntarily stopping price promotions on unhealthy food, but many promotions are still available to loyalty card holders. Greater moves should be made toward offering promotions on healthier foods.
The government has committed £37bn to tackle the increased cost of living, including £1.5bn to help households with the cost of essentials, including food. But it should consider further steps, such as the sugar and salt formulation tax proposed in the NSFIR which, if implemented, could lead to similar outcomes to those from the soft drinks industry levy, which has led to a 44% decrease in the amount of sugar in affected soft drinks.
We recognise right now may not be the best time to introduce new taxes, but the government should publish a full impact assessment of the introduction of the reformulation tax on which to base any future decision. It is also uncertain whether such a tax would increase consumer costs or lead to people substituting cheaper healthier foods in their shopping basket. Government should at the very least commit to greater levels of funding for programmes informing and educating consumers about healthy choices and the risks of obesity.
The government has many levers it can pull to tackle the growing crisis and we are calling on it to do so.
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