Pork production likely to fall again next year Contraction of UK pigmeat production is turning into a severe structural adjustment rather than merely an unusually painful cyclical output swing as seemed likely just a few months ago. "Despite the recent strengthening of pig prices, there is still expected to be pressure in the industry to reduce pig numbers," says the latest MLC Pigs Market Outlook. "Higher asset prices will encourage producers to sell up and so there will be a further shakeout in production in the second half of 2000." The MLC forecasters have not changed their estimate of this year's pork production, still believing it will fall 9% to 755,000 tonnes. But they have radically altered their assessment of the breeding herd trend, and this is responsible for the startling prediction of a further drop in clean pig slaughterings and pork output tonnage next year. Earlier MLC predictions indicated breeding capacity could begin increasing again this summer, enabling home producers and processors to cash in on a rising market due to declining output in the major continental regions. Instead, it now seems UK slaughterings will reach their lowest level for 25 years and fall further in 2001, but the downturn elsewhere in the EU is only patchy and the total kill is likely to be the second highest on record. Although imported pigmeat prices might continue moving against buyers this year, the uptrend will not be strong enough to alleviate the stress on UK farmers (and on processors dependent on the home kill). {{MEAT }}

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