Fever-Tree was punished for failing to exceed expectations this week, as results for its first half-year were deemed “more evolutionary than revolutionary”, as phrased by Barclays analyst Ashutosh Jain.
Investors cashed in their shares on Thursday morning following the UK PLC’s interim results, knocking the stock down 6% below the day’s starting price. The share price reaction came despite a positive, if tepid, response from analysts, who placed the UK plc broadly in line with expectations.
Revenues climbed 8% to £183.6m in the half to 30 June 2026, as the UK rebounded to growth for the first time in three-and-a-half years, and the US business overtook Schweppes to take market share leadership in tonics. Meanwhile, EBITDA rose 9% in the half to £20.1m.
For all the positive financial progress, Jain said he had “expected a stronger uplift” from the Molson Coors tie-up, “given the significant increase in distribution reach, merchandising support and marketing investment”.
CEO Tim Warrillow told The Grocer the business was well aware its US expansion “would take time”, but pointed to Circana data demonstrating accelerating sales growth in the country. In Q1, US sales values were up 6%, in Q2 they grew 11%, and in Q3 by 16%.
“Molson Coors has tens of thousands of sales people and thousands of accounts to communicate with, and we well understood it would be an evolution [as opposed to a revolution]” said Warrillow.
“The results are very encouraging, and our market leadership continues to grow [in the US] – we grew market share by two and a half points in the half [year], and our competition is flat”
He added the return to growth in the UK was more than a one-off caused by the hot weather.
”We were always confident,” he said. “We’ve been busy diversifying our range away from tonic water for the last four to five years, and encouraging consumers to not just think of our products as mixers but drinks in their own right.”
Fever-Tree’s non-tonic portfolio grew sales by 10% in the half, with ginger beer up 33%. Non-tonic drinks now account for 47% of sales.
Panmure Liberum analyst Anubhav Malhotra took a positive view of the Molson Coors tie-up, calling Fever-Tree’s 11% US growth a “noteworthy achievement given declining US spirits consumption”.
“Capturing the US opportunity remains key to the equity story, with encouraging signs of progress,” he added.
We remain constructive, believing Molson Coors’ scale and increased marketing spend should drive significant volume and market share gains,” Malhotra said.
“It is underappreciated that the profit-sharing agreement implies around 60% group EBITDA growth over 2025-2028 is effectively locked in.”
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