Current price recovery could peter out in autumn Slaughter level down by 14% Suddenly the pig shortage looks serious. MAFF's most recent slaughter estimate, for the week to February 19, shows UK abattoir throughput plunging to the exceptionally low total of 256,000 head, nearly 14% down from a year ago, and price increases have been correspondingly dramatic. Live auctions paused for breath on Monday after bidders had chased prices 20% higher in less than a fortnight, but Malton's 86.5p per kilo (up in two stages from just 70p last month) and spot deadweight business topping 90p are more realistic indicators of clamorous demand. At these prices, the market is close to the level producers have been claiming is necessary to cover variable costs. The most efficient finishers are almost certainly able to cover most overheads as well at just a couple of pence above the 90p. However the price surge does not necessarily mean the crisis is over. A declining kill and rising market are common seasonal phenomena in February/March, and the moves by Malton merely take the producers' deadweight return back up to where it was last summer before the unexpected autumn retreat (although the live auction price is higher now). Lower slaughterings on the continent make the UK market upturn more convincing this time than in mid 1999. Yet the outlook is still clouded by MAFF's puzzling farm census results, which showed resilient maiden gilt numbers (The Grocer, February 26, p25). If the low clean pig kill partly reflects stock retentions for breeding, the current price recovery might again peter out before the end of the year with a resurgence of slaughter pig production ­ although this is now a minority opinion among market analysts. {{MEAT }}