Carlsberg has emerged as the clearest winner of the Fifa World Cup 2026 – among brewers, at least.
Upsets in the tournament have left many of the global brewing giants with lower-than-expected sales volumes, as early exits from Brazil, Germany, Colombia and the US hit beer demand.
Pre-tournament odds had implied a 24 basis point uplift to full-year beer sales, according to investment bank Morgan Stanley. But with the tournament almost complete, the bank estimated a global uplift of just 17bps, as smaller European nations’ success failed to offset the impact of larger markets’ World Cup exits.
For individual countries, from the quarter-finals onwards, each win equates to around 70bps of beer volume growth – highlighting the importance of “deep runs” as the driver of sales, said Morgan Stanley analyst Sarah Simon.
Of the major brewers, Carlsberg has gained the most, with stronger than expected progression across the UK, France, Switzerland and Norway.
AB InBev, however, suffered from Brazil’s round of 16 exit, leaving the group it with a “more limited than initially expected” upside, though Simon noted it should still benefit from its position as World Cup sponsor. Neither Royal Unibrew and Heineken were much affected, as their major markets’ performance in the tournament largely balanced out.
Simon noted that where teams outperformed expectations, retailers may need incremental replenishment in Q3, proving a boost to brewers.
“Where they underperformed, weaker sell-out may result in an inventory unwind. Our analysis points to the largest negative adjustments in Brazil, Germany, Portugal and the Netherlands,” she said.
“Historical experience highlights this risk: following England’s earlier-than-expected exit in 2010, ABI, Carlsberg and Heineken all cited post-World Cup inventory adjustments as a material drag on Q3 volumes.”
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