The forecast for Florida’s post-hurricane grapefruit harvest has been downgraded further.
US Department of Commerce officials said this week that the state would produce 13 million 39kg cartons in the 2004/2005 season. This compares with 40 million the previous season and represents a drop of 68%.
The new estimate, which covers the whole season from last October until May, replaces last month’s forecast of 15 million boxes.
Mike Yetter, director of international marketing at the Florida Department of Citrus, warned that there would be shortages and higher prices in UK supermarkets.
“Supply will be tight and we will see fewer grapefruit in store.
The market has reflected the tight supply and prices this season are very firm.”
Yetter said shortages in store would not entirely reflect the dramatic decline in the size of the harvest. “Even though the crop will be reduced by 68%, a larger percentage of the crop than normal will be going into fresh this season.
“Normally 35-40% of the annual crop goes into fresh with the rest going into juice production. This year will see a flip-flop effect, with about 70% going into fresh.”
Promotional activity would be intensified in Florida’s key EU markets, the UK and France, said Yetter. In February in-store samplings will begin, with activity tailored to retailers’ individual needs following.
Yetter said he didn’t expect consumers to be put off buying Florida grapefruit by the higher prices. “Consumers in France and the UK are willing to pay a higher price,” he said.
Next season’s harvest would see a return to more normal levels but was still expected to be down on 2003/2004. Yetter said this was offering hope to devastated growers that they could at least look forward to firmer prices than average.
Richard Clarke
US Department of Commerce officials said this week that the state would produce 13 million 39kg cartons in the 2004/2005 season. This compares with 40 million the previous season and represents a drop of 68%.
The new estimate, which covers the whole season from last October until May, replaces last month’s forecast of 15 million boxes.
Mike Yetter, director of international marketing at the Florida Department of Citrus, warned that there would be shortages and higher prices in UK supermarkets.
“Supply will be tight and we will see fewer grapefruit in store.
The market has reflected the tight supply and prices this season are very firm.”
Yetter said shortages in store would not entirely reflect the dramatic decline in the size of the harvest. “Even though the crop will be reduced by 68%, a larger percentage of the crop than normal will be going into fresh this season.
“Normally 35-40% of the annual crop goes into fresh with the rest going into juice production. This year will see a flip-flop effect, with about 70% going into fresh.”
Promotional activity would be intensified in Florida’s key EU markets, the UK and France, said Yetter. In February in-store samplings will begin, with activity tailored to retailers’ individual needs following.
Yetter said he didn’t expect consumers to be put off buying Florida grapefruit by the higher prices. “Consumers in France and the UK are willing to pay a higher price,” he said.
Next season’s harvest would see a return to more normal levels but was still expected to be down on 2003/2004. Yetter said this was offering hope to devastated growers that they could at least look forward to firmer prices than average.
Richard Clarke
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