Difficult times lie ahead. Apart from tighter economic conditions, numerous challenges persist over health, labelling and GM foods

A lot of grief lies in store on the trading front in the next few months. A slowing market will take its toll, especially among independent shops and smaller chains. Nor should anyone kid themselves the Competition Commission is going to do anything to prolong the life of otherwise vulnerable players.

In any case, there are several other challenges in the offing likely to occupy most grocery retailers rather more than anything the Commission or the OFT does. For example, the great obesity "epidemic" is alive and kicking and no one has yet dared to revise downwards the official projections of the proportion of people in the UK who will be obese in 20 years' time.

Neither the Department of Health nor the FSA seems to have any new ideas on how to initiate the necessary changes in lifestyles. Meanwhile, the Cabinet Office has started a review of the supply and consumption of food in the UK, which could well result in the establishment of a new government unit to deal with nutrition and obesity. If all else fails, set up another bureaucracy.

Media coverage of binge drinking and related hospital admissions over Christmas and new year served to remind us that we have yet to turn the tide on this particular form of excess. While the industry is doing a good job in making its labelling more informative, this approach may be no more successful in encouraging responsible drinking than traffic lights (or GDAs if you prefer) have had in persuading "fatties" to eat less and better.

In the meantime the long-awaited conclusions of the EU Commission's review of food labelling are likely to present us with another bag of nails. Far from simplifying the 40-odd pieces of regulation that have accumulated over as many years, the most likely outcome is a call to extend the scope of labelling to include animal welfare.

For whose good is all this being done? For consumers who are already either confused by the information on food labels or who ignore it? Or are the politicians doing it primarily to give themselves a warm feeling?

Then, finally, there is an issue coming to the boil that, when it does, will dwarf all else - the rehabilitation of GM food. The science has moved decisively in its favour, while the government is hoping someone (the industry) will take the plunge and start selling GM lines again. When that happens the tabloids will scream. Flat earthers will rage. Prince Charles will make a speech. But it's coming, all the same.n

Kevin Hawkins, director general,

British Retail Consortium