Inspired by cooking shows like the Great British Bake Off, more and more of us are donning an apron and making our own Christmas pudding.

This year, retailers have seen sales of Christmas pudding ingredients surge in the run up to Stir-up Sunday – the last Sunday before Advent when Christmas pudding is traditionally made.

Last week, Waitrose said sales of mincemeat were up 13%, caster sugar sales were up 18% and home baking nuts and cake decorations were up by nearly 30%. Meanwhile, Amazon said in the six weeks leading up to Stir-up Sunday, sales of Christmas pudding moulds were up 500%.

It seems a do-it-yourself, austerity-driven approach to Christmas puddings is taking hold – but home bakers may find themselves at the mercy of fluctuating ingredients prices.

Research for The Grocer conducted by Mintec reveals UK egg prices are up 22% year-on-year, driven by a fall in production across Europe. Meanwhile sultana prices have jumped 35% year-on-year – with dry weather in Turkey hitting dried grape production.

But it’s not all bad news: the price of raisins has fallen 10% year-on-year, thanks to record harvests in California – where total production of dried grapes is set to be 25% up on the preview year.

Elsewhere, UK currant prices are down 12%, thanks to above-average production in Greece. And good weather across Europe this summer has led to an increase in sugar production, pushing EU-wide prices down 20%.

The message for Christmas bakers seems to be clear: find a recipe that steers clear of the sultanas, but goes heavy on the raisins, currants and sugar.

It’s little wonder, in the face of this home-baking trend, that retailers are pulling out the stops with their shop-bought offerings this year: Waitrose has enlisted Heston Blumenthal to pimp out his Hidden Orange Christmas pudding with an extra layer of chocolate sauce in the middle, while M&S has added its sugar plum ‘signature flavour’ to its version. Do-it-yourself thrift versus luxury items: which way will consumers plump this Christmas?