Supermarkets are growing their Share of Stomach as diners eat out less
The second instalment of The Grocer’s quarterly Share of Stomach Index – which tracks how consumers are spreading their food & drink spend – makes a bleak read for posh restaurants, with other channels eating their lunch.
Based on Spendmapper analysis of card transactions of 180,000 consumers across 750 retailers, restaurants, bars and cafés, it shows Brits spent 1.8% more on food & drink in the three months to 30 June 2026, with supermarkets growing ahead of that at 3.5%.
It means supermarkets have increased their share of stomach spending and now account for 74.3% of all food & drink sales – a full percentage point more than a year ago.
“Overall spending increased compared with both last year and the previous quarter, but growth remains below inflation, suggesting households are still managing their budgets carefully,” says Spendmapper director Lauren Ambrose. “Caution is most evident in discretionary spending, with higher-end restaurants, bars and pubs all seeing spend decline.”
Nicholas Found, head of commercial content at Retail Economics, says: “Consumer confidence will have played directly into this, including households contending with higher transport costs and fuelprice anxiety, leading to fewer impulse occasions, fewer extra drinks, fewer casual meals out, and more spend routed through the weekly shop instead.”
No surprise, then, that the most expensive meals fared worst. Outlay at high-end restaurants tumbled by 8.3% year on year and by 5.1% compared with Q1, a traditionally quieter period for hospitality. Within that, however, there were some standout performers, including strong growth at Hawksmoor and Dishoom.
Bars and pubs fared a little better. Helped by longer, warm nights, takings were up by 16% compared with quarter one, but still down 3.9% on a year ago, the second biggest decline.
“It’s encouraging to see some improvement in hospitality spending compared to the start of the year,” says UKHospitality CEO Allen Simpson. “However cost pressures are still influencing consumer choices and affordability remains a key factor in how often and where people choose to spend.
“While consumers continue to value hospitality experiences, both households and businesses remain under significant pressure.”
Pubs and live music venues are in line for a 20% business rates cut announced by new prime minister Andy Burnham on Thursday.
UKHospitality has also called for a permanent reduction of VAT to 10% for the sector. “It’s a measure that would support growth and help ease cost of living pressures,” says Simpson.
In at-home consumption, healthy meal kits slumped by 7% compared with quarter one as new year’s resolutions fell by the wayside, a cyclical sales pattern. The likes of Frive and Green Chef did a better job of holding onto customers than a year ago, with annual sales up 1.7% across the category.
The biggest year-on-year winners, however, were coffee shops and bakeries, suggesting a coffee or matcha is emerging as an affordable alternative to a full meal out.
Specialist alcohol merchants such as Laithwaites and The Wine Society had the second-highest year-on-year growth and, at 20.7%, the highest compared with Q1.
Supermarkets boost appeal
For supermarkets, growth of 3.5% isn’t just a case of cash-strapped Britain staying at home. Retailers have also adapted their ranges to make staying in more appealing.
“The gap between retail and certain eating-out occasions has narrowed materially,” says Found. “Stronger premium own label, dine-in propositions and better food-to-go offers are giving shoppers more reasons to stay in, without feeling they are compromising. Consumers still want a treat, but on their terms and at a price they can justify.”
The bottom line, says Found, is that “this remains a cautious consumer”, making a “tougher backdrop for hospitality, where spending on higher-ticket occasions remains more exposed”.
“This quarter is likely to favour operators that can deliver the clearest blend of value, convenience and affordable indulgence,” he adds.
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