While it might feel almost criminal to mention Christmas in August, many supermarket teams across the country will already be elbows-deep in peak season planning – and rightly so. This year’s golden quarter won’t just be busy, it will be fraught with added complexity.
While global supply chains are still recovering from the disruptions of the past decade, new pressures are mounting rapidly. From shifting export tariffs to ongoing instability in the Red Sea, a new wave of geopolitical and socioeconomic turbulence is already shaping up to challenge even the best-laid supply chain plans this year.
For retailers, especially in the grocery sector, preparing for 2025’s golden quarter isn’t just a matter of getting your stock and staffing right. It’s a test of end-to-end operational resilience.
Golden quarter preparation
Once upon a time, peak season planning for retailers meant redecorating the window display, clearing shelf space, and making sure you’d ordered enough mince pies and PlayStations. You had a forecast, a few small contingency measures in place, and – if you were lucky – a crystal ball in the form of last year’s sales data.
It was never easy, but you knew when Christmas was coming, and when consumers would start panic-buying the stuffing and prosecco. You were also pretty optimistic about what your supply chain could handle.
Now, planning for peak in the grocery world takes place against a backdrop of year-round supply chain disruption. Over the past few years, retailers have had to navigate the impact of everything from shipping route diversions and energy market volatility to extreme weather and cyberattacks. The challenges keep changing, but the uncertainty is constant. Volatility, in other words, has become the only ‘known’ operating environment.
What grocers now face is a state of supply chain perma-crisis. In this somewhat unique sector, fresh food, fine margins, and high velocity render supply chains exposed. It is simply no longer enough to maintain a solely reactive stance to the challenges the golden quarter could throw your way. Instead, retailers must build strategies that account for the unpredictability that surrounds it in advance.
The typical just-in-time, linear grocery model was built for a more stable world – one in which changing policies didn’t risk cutting off exports of a certain type of fruit or grain, or a single cyber incident couldn’t completely stall order fulfilment. But today’s peak season arrives with more variables and far greater pressure on grocery supply chains.
Getting resilience right
Of course, there are some examples of businesses already building resilience right. Take Morrisons, for example, which recently announced that it is building a ‘living digital model’ of its supply chain. The dynamic digital twin will be able to model scenarios and stress-test decisions by tweaking operations, preparing for a variety of potential circumstances. Having this intel could go some way to getting ahead of risks and implementing contingencies before they manifest themselves.
But while innovation and technology will play a critical role in supply chain resilience, its implementation must be underpinned by broader strategic thinking. That means designing – or reimagining – supply ecosystems that can flex with the flow of disruption. It could involve blending near and far-shoring strategies to spread risk. Critically, it should involve building alternatives into sourcing, logistics, and distribution – not just to cope with disruption, but to help remain competitive despite it.
In grocery, where demand moves fast and freshness can’t wait, it’s not just about having a plan B: it’s about being able to execute it immediately, and cultivating agility, not just contingency.
One thing is for sure: the golden quarter still drives a significant share of supermarkets’ annual revenue and requires focused planning and precision. But peak season can’t be the only lens through which we view the vulnerability of supply chains – disruption doesn’t respect calendars, and resilience simply can’t be seasonal.
Retailers who see peak as part of a bigger, year-round resilience strategy will be the ones delivering full shelves and strong performance, no matter what hits next. Those who don’t? Well, they’ll still be wondering why the stuffing didn’t make it to store. As for their customers? They may well find a better alternative.
Chris Clowes, executive director at Scala
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