If any European leaders still harboured doubts that Donald Trump’s interest in Greenland was more than bluster, the alarming events of the past few days should very much dispel them.

In comments posted on his ironically named Truth Social platform on Saturday, the leader of the free world slapped tariffs of 10% on “any and all” US imports from 1 February (rising to 25% from June) from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the UK.

The crime of these eight European countries (who are, of course, also key NATO allies of the US), was to voice their opposition to Trump’s increasingly maniacal overtures towards Greenland. As Trump put it, the tariffs “would be due and payable until such time a deal is reached for the complete and total purchase” of the self-governing Danish territory.

And alongside the thinly-veiled threats of military action towards the same countries levelled by the US president, the tariffs, plus the rapidly deteriorating relationship between Europe and America, look set to spell big trouble for the UK food sector and the wider economy.

Trade and tariffs

The US is the Britain’s third-biggest agrifood export market behind Ireland and France, with transatlantic shipments rising by 11.8% to £2.7bn in 2024, according to FDF analysis of HMRC data.

Exports rose even further in the first half of 2025, jumping by 18.9% to £1.4bn, despite last April’s introduction of Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs – which imposed a 10% levy on UK imports. This remained in place as a ‘baseline’ tariff, despite the UK and US striking a limited trade agreement in May.

And the FDF’s most recent Trade Snapshot for Q3 of 2025 (published in December), shows trade with the US was still growing, albeit at a slower rate towards the end of last year (up 9.1% to a YTD total of £2.1bn).

But with exporters now looking at a tariff for selling to the US of at least 20%, potentially rising to 45% by the summer (and even higher if any tit-for-tat retaliatory moves are made), the prospects of growing the UK’s share of the US market – a key aim of the UK/US ‘Economic Prosperity Deal’ – are now looking increasingly distant.

That’s very much the message from Marco Forgione, director general of the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade, who today told The Grocer the UK food sector was facing a  hit of between £500m to £800m from Trump’s tariffs.

The ‘risk element’

Forgione also echoed comments from the likes of Rabobank late last year that geopolitics, and geopolitical muscle, is now the leading factor dictating global trade.

“With ‘Liberation Day’, Trump felt that there were discriminatory practises in access to the EU market for goods and services,” he said. ”But this time it is entirely related to the governance of Greenland, so we are in a in a new era of trade is being used as a significant lever in geopolitical negotiations.”

His concerns were shared by FDF CEO Karen Betts, who warned that “smaller businesses, many of whom export identifiably British products, are likely to be disproportionately hit”.

And as one food producer told The Grocer: “We all know what a f***ng idiot he can be, so we’re having to build in the same risk element you see when trading with countries in Asia.” 

Keir Starmer today attempted to keep walking the tightrope of the ‘special relationship’ by reiterating how “completely wrong” the tariffs (and of course Trump’s fixation on Greenland) were, while also stressing the importance of the US and UK partnership – especially for defence.

But with the EU even stronger than Starmer in condemning the tariffs, accusing Trump of undermining transatlantic relations and risking “a dangerous downward spiral”, retaliatory moves after Thursday’s EU crisis summit seem likely (as does the potential for a fully-fledged transatlantic trade war).

All that points to yet more pain and uncertainty for the food sector over the days and weeks to come.

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