Only the brave and the bold would bet on the outcome of the UK’s deposit return scheme rollout, given the subject’s history of courting disaster at every turn.

However, there is little doubt that the Welsh government’s recent appointment of Exchange for Change as the scheme administrator is a significant milestone.

It’s also safe to say that whatever happens next, including whether or not the much-coveted joined-up UK launch in October 2027 actually happens, this is most definitely not a repeat of the Scottish fiasco that saw its once pioneering plans collapse in 2023.

A political hot potato

Despite warnings from groups such as the Society of Independent Brewers & Associates (SIBA) that the UK DRS rollout risks repeating the “Scottish-style meltdown”, there are two main factors that set the situations apart.

The first is that the political minefield is far less fraught than when Nicola Sturgeon and Lorna Slater were spearheading Scotland’s scheme. Especially now the new Plaid Cymru-led Welsh government has appointed a deposit management organisation and shown it is willing to at least consider compromise over its plans for thousands of glass return points. 

DRS became such a hot potato in Scotland that it dominated front page news for months. The fact that the UK government (and many newspaper barons) saw it as nothing short of a threat to the union itself meant it never really stood much of a chance. Once DRS became a proxy for those arguments, any chances of a smooth rollout were severely diminished.

Industry calling the shots

The second big difference is that the DRS rollout is now firmly in the hands of industry heavyweights rather than hapless politicians, with companies like Coca-Cola, Heineken and Danone taking charge of negotiations via the not-for-profit Exchange for Change body.

While there is still a huge amount to do if DRS is to hit its October 2027 deadline, there is surely a far greater chance of success with industry calling the shots rather than being pulled in different directions by Westminster, Holyrood or the Senedd.

That said, it would be foolish to underestimate the barriers that lie ahead if DRS is to finally to make it off the ground. Glass lies at the heart of the challenge, just as it did with Scotland’s original scheme.

Even the most optimistic observers must have been wondering whether time was running out before Wales’ announcement last week.

Just hours earlier, the doomsayers had been out in force, with Exchange for Change forced to issue a statement of reassurance that plans remained on track amid growing pressure from retailers, recycling bosses and independent drinks companies calling for yet another delay.

As it stands, DRS has survived another brush with disaster, and – as Exchange for Change rightly points out – has “hit every milestone in our delivery plan to date”.

The next priority, and one that will almost certainly determine whether the October 2027 deadline can be met, is resolving the glass question in Wales. That will require politicians – who have so far appeared willing to put principle ahead of practicality – to accept a compromise that can be delivered in reality and, crucially, win over an industry that remains understandably sceptical after years of false starts.

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