Preparing for big bumps in the road ahead requires more than optimism – it demands strategic foresight and proactive action. Challenges such as drought, cyberattacks, pandemics, conflicts, trade wars, rising ingredient costs, and potential food taxes are not distant possibilities, they are the realities shaping the 2020s for food and farming sectors.
Grocery leaders must not only anticipate these shocks, but should adapt their business models to contribute to building resilient food systems.
The truth is stark: many food retailers and brands remain alarmingly unprepared for the challenges ahead, risking significant disruptions. The agri-food sector must rethink its strategies to avoid catastrophic outcomes.
Businesses should not merely get stuck in their day-to-day operations; they must step back, assess alternative paths, and embrace innovative planning tools. Learn from Professor Tim Lang’s important work and change from a ‘just in time’ approach to ‘just in case’.
To avoid driving headlong into chaos and disuption, food businesses should take lessons from the car.
Firstly, implement measures equivalent to shock absorbers, preparing for potential challenges ahead. This involves thorough business planning and obtaining comprehensive insurance to manage unforeseen disruptions.
Secondly, ensure you have strategies akin to a GPS device, to navigate away from operational bottlenecks. This requires maintaining agility and avoiding inflexible operational structures. Thirdly, use a car simulator approach by testing future scenarios and understanding their implications for your business.
For this third element, try playing a serious game. The Food Ethics Council recently hosted a workshop as part of the Backcasting to Achieve Food Resilience in the UK project, bringing together professionals from food retail, farming, manufacturing, cybersecurity, insurance and civil society.
This cross-disciplinary group piloted a serious game, testing out future scenarios and exploring strategies for resilience. This serious game will then be refined and used as a strategic tool by decision-makers and policymakers.
More than a game
Initially, I was sceptical about how industry leaders would embrace the concept of playing a board game to tackle future uncertainties, even if the game was specially designed by experts. Yet, participants found immense value: gaining better insights into potential future challenges, breaking out of immediate sector silos, and fostering co-operative planning.
Importantly, the exercise underscored the urgent need to shift away from a competitive ‘race to the bottom’ mindset towards models of collaboration, where businesses work together to tackle shared challenges.
Polycrises – interconnected global crises – are now the norm, demanding robust planning and adaptability. Exploring possible future scenarios is not a luxury, it is invaluable. Businesses must allocate time for this planning to mitigate risks and seize opportunities amid the uncertainty.
Facing future challenges isn’t about playing games with your success. However, playing a serious game can help you strategically plan for a resilient, thriving future.
There has been a lot of talk about resilience – some would say too much talk. We need to avoid a tunnel vision focus. Instead, we need radically different ways of producing, distributing and selling food that work in a volatile world. What’s your role in that?
Dan Crossley is executive director at the Food Ethics Council
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