Sugar bad, lard good? How the role of fat in diet is changing

’Cook with lard,’ screamed the Daily Mail. ‘Break out the chips,’ rejoiced The Star. ‘Eating saturated fat is GOOD for you,’ blared The Mirror.

As these headlines testify, the received wisdom around fat - and in particular dairy and animal fat - has been turned on its head.

So what’s going on? How widely accepted is the science underpinning these new findings? And what are the implications for the food and drink industry?

In fact, scientists have been questioning the demonisation of fats since the 1950s, but in 1970, a piece of landmark research from US nutritionist Dr Ancel Keys - and his appearance on the front cover of Time magazine - proved so influential in blaming saturated fats for the heart disease epidemic sweeping the US - that sticking up for saturated fats became a sort of heresy.

As the obesity epidemic has worsened, however, scientists have not only focused their sights on carbohydrates, in the so-called ‘war on sugar’. They’ve also increasingly been re-examining the role of saturated fat. And their conclusions are quite startling.

Singing from the rooftops

In 2010, a report by Dr Patty Siri-Tarino, program director at the US Family Heart and Nutrition Centre, based on a major collection of studies, claimed “there is no convincing evidence that saturated fat causes heart disease.” It spurred fierce debate. The US Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee went on to scrap its low saturated fat recommendations in June 2015, for the first time in nearly seven decades. “We really need to sing it from the rooftops that the low-fat diet concept is dead,” said Dr Dariush Mozaffarian, a Boston-based nutritional science expert, in the same month. 

Two subsequent studies sparked a similar debate here in the UK. In March 2014, Dr Rajiv Chowdhury examined 72 studies (covering 600,000 participants across 18 nations) and concluded there was insufficient evidence that ditching fatty cuts of meat for oily fish protected the heart.

Then Professor Russell de Souza published his take on the fat debate in February 2015. His first finding, that transfats increased the chance of heart problems, was nothing new. But he also backed up Chowdhury in agreeing that saturated fats weren’t a significant contributor to heart disease - though to be fair he didn’t find specific health benefits for them either.

British cardiologist Dr Aseem Malhotra went further, claiming abandoning saturated fat in our diets had actually increased the risk of heart disease. Taking out fat had left the food industry piling foods with added sugar to compensate on taste and left us more exposed to diabetes, high blood pressure and obesity - all risk factors in developing heart problems, Malhotra said.

The deluge of new advice didn’t end there. Even though fat has twice as many calories per gram as carbohydrates and protein, a Harvard study from October 2015 analysed 67,000 dieters and found those who cut back on fat were two-and-a-half pounds heavier after a year than those who embraced a low-carbohydrate approach instead. 

“Bodies don’t process all calories in the same way,” says investigative journalist Nina Teicholz, who has dedicated a decade to investigating fats. “Fat and protein turn out to be uniquely satiating so that one is less likely to overeat on these, whereas carbohydrates are less satiating.”

As a result “it’s becoming hard for the public health establishment to justify its anti-satfat stance,” says author Joanna Blythman.

Yet they do. Current government guidance remains the same as in 2007 (and still relies on nutrients research from 1991). It recommends “just a little saturated fat” in our diets with “plenty of starchy foods” and a total fat consumption of “not more than 35%” of daily energy. It also says saturated fat should not exceed 11% of total calories.

Nonetheless, the growing evidence over the role of fat left such a big question mark that the Scientific Committee on Nutrition even took a break from attacking sugar in October to set up a new Fats Working Group. Just don’t expect its conclusion any time soon. It has set itself a target of December 2017 to publish a complete review.

Until then, the scientific community remains divided. Even the British Heart Foundation, which funded Chowdhury’s 2014 study, isn’t convinced by his conclusions. As a result, it continues to recommend keeping consumption of saturated fats to 30g a day, the equivalent of two tablespoons of butter. Chowdhury had to make several corrections to his paper, says BHF dietician Tracy Parker, and failed to take account of the “saturation gap”. Whether saturated fats are a healthier alternative depends entirely on what consumers have been indulging in as a replacement, she says.

The British Nutrition Foundation is also circumspect about Chowdhury’s findings. It cited a major 2009 study published in the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition that found swapping saturated fats for carbs increased risk of coronary disease by 7%, but replacing them with unsaturated fats (particularly those with omega-6 such as nuts, seeds and oils) reduced risk by 13%. Chowdhury hadn’t tested these differentiations.

Steve Osborn, principal food and beverage consultant at the Aurora Ceres Partnership, is equally cautious. “This research might turn out to be flawed or limited,” he says. “Any sudden excessive promotion of any component of our diet needs to be treated with caution.”

Tam Fry, spokesman for the National Obesity Forum, says it’s even simpler. “There are a lot of people with bees in their bonnet that want to rectify the Ancel Keys decision,” he says. “But only certain fats are good for you. Saturated fat is unsatisfactory, and unsaturated fat is good for you. It’s as simple as that.”

Teicholz isn’t surprised by the debate. “The potential reversal of more than half a century of institutionalised and entrenched nutritional advice will be a slow and difficult process,” she says. “Scientists are not eager to be in the vanguard, for many reasons.”

Nonetheless, Teicholz thinks it’s important to embrace high-fat foods like meat and dairy. “The only way to get that fat is to eat the foods that naturally contain fat, which are animal foods,” she advises.

Even weight-loss gurus are ditching low-fat diets. Scientist Eric Westman (co-author of ‘The New Atkins For a New You’) says “bacon, cheese, cream, mayonnaise, butter and oil are all healthy parts of a low-carb diet” in his dieting tips.

Consumer behaviour

And how have consumers responded to the favourable reports? According to our exclusive poll from Harris Interactive, 27% have upped intake of butter, 13% are drinking more full-fat milk and 13% are opting for more fatty cuts of bacon. Change is slow though, with only 3% admitting to purposefully eating more fats. 

For the food and drinks industry, the new findings on fat are potentially very significant. The government has only managed to cut total fat consumption to below 35% of energy “largely thanks to a concerted effort from the dairy and meat industry to produce leaner animals by genetics and breeding technology,” and to offer consumers “leaner cuts” and lower-fat milks, says the AHDB’s Maureen Strong.

Butter renaissance

Meanwhile, butter is enjoying a real renaissance. In the US, 892,000 tonnes will be eaten this year, the most since World War Two. It’s a similar story in the UK, where butter sales have been growing since 2011 and volume sales increased again last year (by 9.4%), compared with a 7.4% drop in volume for margarine, according to Kantar Worldpanel. Though retail price has some role to play in these fluctuations, says Alex Bandini, strategic insight director at Kantar Worldpanel, low fat has “declined as a motivator for consumer choice”.

For Dr Judith Bryans, chief executive of Dairy UK, the “shift towards a more positive image and understanding of dairy fats is more than welcome” and leaves “significant potential in terms of innovation”.

“Until now, the dairy industry has spent a lot of time and effort trying to take fat out of dairy products to meet consumer expectations,” she adds. “Today, we can finally move on and focus on new areas of innovations such as high protein or functionality.”

More favourable coverage of fats has also paid off for emerging categories like coconut oil. Sales have more than tripled in the past year, from £4.4m to £13m in September 2015, according to Kantar’s figures.

Yet Osborn advises caution to both brands and retailers excited at the possibilities. “As an industry we should have a holistic approach to both reformulation and nutrition,” he says. “Let’s not demonise one ingredient in sugar and lord up the benefits of another.”

Not least because it leaves consumers baffled. Thirty-three per cent are already thoroughly confused by current advice on fats, according to our Harris Interactive poll (compared with 18% on sugar) with only 9% confident they know the differences between saturated, unsaturated and trans fats.

Nevertheless, consumers more open to fatty foods present a tempting opportunity for fmcg. “Consumers can now enjoy reasonable amounts of nutritious products such as cheese and butter guilt-free,” adds Bryans. “This is our chance to offer tasty and versatile foods adapted to their needs and expectations.”