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The meat industry is anticipating another year of production decline as confidence in the supply chain falters

Beef production is likely to continue to fall into 2026 the industry has warned as prices have continued to rise.

The meat industry is anticipating another year of production decline as confidence in the supply chain falters.

In 2025, beef production declined by 4%, according to AHDB. Becky Smith, AHDB senior analyst (red meat) warned that this was likely to continue into 2026, albeit at a slower rate.

“I think our long-term forecast would be that we continue to see that supply move downwards, but in a less drastic manner than we’ve maybe seen it in the last year or so,” said Smith.

“I think we’re probably looking at a more managed, long-term decline, particularly in that kind of base supply if we look at those of longer-term policy factors and profitability challenges,” she added.

This was echoed by Nick Allen, CEO of the British Meat Processors Association, who told The Grocer that “the pipeline doesn’t look great” and that so far “there’s not much sign that our production at home is going to recover that much” with the same issue being seen across Europe.

He explained that farmer confidence continued to be low and that producers needed “signals from the government to invest”, as current schemes run by the government were “discouraging production”.

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“Some of the schemes and environmental schemes they’re offering are counterproductive and if food security is really important to them, they need to get their heads around this,” he said.

With half of UK beef coming through the dairy herd, Allen added that another long-term challenge was the decline in milk price which, while beneficial in the short term as farmers sell more meat into the market, would decrease the amount of beef on the market.

Tighter domestic supply is therefore leading to “more imports creeping into the market” and with shortages across Europe they will be “coming from further afield”, from places like South America and Australia.

It comes as beef prices at the major multiples have continued to increase, up by as much as 29.6% since the start of the year [Assosia 5 w/e 26 January 2026].

Smith explained that farmgate prices took a long time to feed through on to retailer shelves and with the peak farmgate price 40% higher year on year, and retail on average up 17.5% at the end of December, there was “probably a little bit of headroom for more growth”.

The farmgate price is expected to be steadier this year, but Smith said she anticipated that it would “stay at probably an elevated level”.

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