Shares in Carlsberg have plummeted after the brewing giant reported weaker than expected first-half trading and warned pressure on consumer spending would remain in the second half of 2025.
Although the Danish group increased first-half revenues 18%, driven by its acquisition of Britvic, organic volumes fell by more than expected – down 1.7% rather than the 0.3% to 1.3% drop analysts had predicted.
The drop led to a 0.3% decline in organic revenue.
Carlsberg guided its annual EBIT growth range upwards to 3%-5%, up from 1%-5%, but the Kronenbourg maker fell short of half-year profit forecasts. Operating profit grew 2.3% to DKK7.2bn, below analysts’ expectations of DKK7.4bn.
Carlsberg CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen said the group had delivered “solid results in a difficult half year”, with good market share development in all three regions, particularly in western Europe, driven by “good” progress for premium beer, alcohol-free brews and soft drinks.
But he warned the consumer environment was not expected to improve over the remainder of the year.
Shares are down 8.2% so far today, reaching as low as DKK745.60 by early afternoon. It follows similar gloomy responses from markets to results from Heineken and AB InBev in recent weeks.
Despite the “mixed bag” of results, Bernstein analyst Trevor Stirling dismissed Carlsberg’s underperformance as “mild”, especially when taken in conjunction with a “small beat” in EBIT and EPS.
“The scale of the share price reaction does look overdone,” he said.
Stirling added the market had seen similar or stronger reactions to other beer stocks following Q2 updates, with Heineken and AB InBev registering share prices falls of 8% and 11% respectively.
“The stock market is reacting very harshly to even the slightest hint of weak volumes,” he said.
Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, said market watchers were particularly nervous that volume declines were a sign price rises were putting customers off.
Added to Aarup-Andersen’s comment that he did not expect things to improve in the second half of the year – the “all-important” festive drinking season, Hewson said – and the results “fell flatter than a day-old pint”.
Carlsberg’s latest drop in share price has taken it to its lowest point since February 2025, negating a rally to around DKK900 that lasted throughout the spring and summer.
Jefferies analyst Edward Mundy said he expected Carlsberg to bounce back following the results, especially thanks to solid European figures including 2.4% volume growth, excluding San Miguel.
“Although Asia is a bit light, western Europe is better and this is a solid print,” Mundy said.
He added that he expected shares to re-rate as confidence built around organic sales growth.
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