Supermarket sales growth has slowed as consumers continue to keep a close watch on household budgets.
Volumes were almost flat in the four weeks to 3 October, and average spend per visit to stores was broadly unchanged at £18.58 despite frequency of visits rising 1.8%, according to the latest data from NIQ.
Total till sales at the major UK supermarkets increased 1.4%, with growth not helped by lower inflation in the period versus a year ago.
“September is always a challenging month for food retailers, with little reason for shoppers to spend more and many preferring to save money ahead of what is likely to be a more expensive end to the year,” said Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NIQ.
“While the Indian summer helped purchasing in drinks and snacks, it also contributed to shoppers failing to make the transition to autumnal spending, which typically drives grocery sales.”
Unseasonably warm weather in September helped increase sales for mineral water (+17.4%), soft drinks (+12.9%), ice cream (+11.7%) and suncare (+8.6%). More autumnal categories struggled as a result, with ambient soup sales down 5.4% and hot beverages in a 2.8% decline.
Beyond the seasonal split, shoppers continued to rein in non-essential spending, with beer, wine and spirits sales down 0.6%, while general merchandise declined 4.6%, suggesting pressure on household budgets is extending beyond the weekly grocery shop.
Asda and Aldi both logged sales declines over the latest 12-week period, falling 0.5% and 0.6% respectively. However, Asda’s performance improved in the latest four weeks as sales returned to growth (+0.7%).
Tesco sales increased 1.9%, followed by Morrisons (1.1%), which overtook Waitrose (1%) and Sainsbury’s (+0.7%). Lidl’s sales growth was 6.8%.
Ocado (+17.2%) and M&S (+10.7%) continued to outperform the wider market.
Online grocery sales exceeded £2bn in the latest four weeks, growing 9.9% in value, while unit growth accelerated to 6.2%, outpacing the wider market.
Rapid delivery is also gaining ground, now accounting for 10.5% of online grocery sales, with its customer base growing 21% year on year.
“Looking ahead, retailers will be seeking fresh momentum as they enter the crucial final quarter of the year,” Watkins said. “With the October half-term holidays and the start of Christmas advertising and promotional campaigns approaching, there will be opportunities to stimulate spending through product innovation, premium meal solutions and compelling value propositions that appeal to budget-conscious shoppers.”
NIQ predicted total till growth of up to 2.5% this Christmas, which would be similar to 2025 levels.
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