Consumers will spend less on Christmas dinner for the first time in at least three years to offset rising inflation in other areas, new research has predicted.
A survey of 2,000 adults in the UK by GlobalData and VoucherCodes found consumers intended to increase food and drink retail spend in the six-week Christmas period by 3.6% to £316.24, which is slightly below the latest food inflation measure of 4.5% [ONS].
The price of popular Christmas dinner items would rise by an average of 4% compared with last year, VoucherCodes’ research found. However, it forecast that consumers would reduce their outlay for Christmas Day itself and spend £48.19 per head, down 43p or 0.9% year on year. This marked the first reduction since VoucherCodes began measuring Christmas Day spend in 2022.
“This is likely to be driven by cutting back on food waste and purchasing less or seeking products on discount and promotions,” a VoucherCodes spokeswoman said. “Furthermore, the Christmas dinner has lost some of its importance with some demographics.”
Data shared with The Grocer shows a wide disparity between regions. Londoners expect to spend £56.11 per head on Christmas dinner and consumers in north east of England £40.80.
Across all retail categories, the research indicated households in London would spend an average of £1,944.48, some 65% more than the £1175.75 forecast in the north east.
VoucherCodes forecasts that consumers will spend a total of £8.36bn on food & drink over the six-week Christmas period, up from £8.07bn in 2024 and £6.79bn in 2019.
Moji Oshisanya, chief commercial officer at VoucherCodes, added: “All categories are expected to see uplifts in sales across the festive period, with consumers determined to not let budgets put a dampener on celebrating the festive season in style.
“However, with inflation at such a high level, UK consumers are increasingly on the hunt for ways to help their money go further. With one-fifth of consumers actively looking for discount codes to boost their Christmas budgets (22%), retailers should be prepared to offer savings and limited time offers to encourage this money-savvy audience to spend with them instead of with competitors. When budgets are tight, value is all important.”
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