England’s opening World Cup match against Croatia triggered a spike in shop theft and violence across UK stores as emotionally charged fans put pressure on retail, new data shows.
In the run up to the Three Lions’ first match on 17 June, shop theft rose by 6% on the daily average, according to SAI, a provider of AI-powered retail security and operations solutions.
Instances peaked between 12pm to 1pm, up 8% on the daily average, and with the late kick-off at 9pm, supermarkets saw the biggest rise of 7%.
The research, which analysed insight from more than 1,000 UK retail locations and 20,000 camera inputs, also revealed theft was highest in the West Midlands, up 25%, followed by Northern Ireland, up 11%.
This trend was also mirrored in the lead up to Scotland’s first World Cup match against Haiti, which took place at 2am on Sunday 14 June.
While traditional stores were closed by the time the match aired, retailers experienced a peak in shoplifting incidents on Saturday 13 June between 2pm to 4pm, up 13%, according to SAI.
“With commercial opportunity also comes operational complexity and that becomes even more pronounced during major sporting events, like the World Cup,” said Chris Bell, head of marketing and insight at SAI.
“With rising footfall, fan excitement reaching fever pitch and emotions running high, those pressures can quickly spill over into store environments, driving increases in theft, safety incidents and wider operational disruption.”
SAI’s wider analysis of theft and operational performance across England’s previous nine fixtures in the FIFA World Cup 2026 European qualifiers and international friendlies found match results had a significant impact on stores.
On non-winning match days, retail theft incidents rose by 13.4%, while operational triggers, such as restocks and queue management, also increased by 17.8% when England drew or lost. That amounted to more than double the volume seen on winning match days (+7.6%).
SAI said these trends are expected to intensify as the World Cup continues.
Based on historical performance patterns and previous England fixtures analysed by SAI, it found should England progress to the quarter finals, shoplifting incidents are forecast to rise by an average of 26%, particularly around large-scale fan zones, pub districts and convenience-led retail locations.
“As the World Cup progresses, sales opportunities build, but so too do the pressures on the store estate. Retailers need to be able to anticipate and respond to those pressures, maintaining visibility across their stores and reacting quickly as conditions change, to ensure the World Cup doesn’t become an operational own goal,” Bell added.
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