Global food price crisis could now be looming, think tank warns

A food price crisis may already be taking shape fuelled by war, trade tensions and climate shocks, a leading think tank has warned.

It comes as new UN figures out Tuesday showed 645 million people faced hunger in 2025 – 8% of the world’s population – up from 61 million in 2019. One in three cannot afford a healthy diet.

In response, IPES-Food said that with another surge in food prices potentially looming, countries must reduce dependence on volatile global markets and build more resilient, self-reliant food systems.

“Geopolitics is increasingly shaping food security, with conflict, fertiliser disruptions, trade tensions, and El Niño-driven climate shocks threatening yet another surge in food prices,” said Jennifer Clapp, IPES-Food panel expert and Canada research chair at the University of Waterloo, Canada.

“The answer is not deeper dependence on volatile global markets – but more resilient, self-reliant food systems that keep food affordable and protect people from future shocks.”

IPES’s analysis of the UN figures showed Africa is now the global epicentre of hunger and for the first time, has overtaken Asia as the continent with the largest number of people facing hunger.

One in five Africans now face hunger, an increase of 81% since 2010, driven by conflict, climate shocks, debt, and dependence on food imports, IPES said.

Million Belay, general coordinator of the Alliance for Food Sovereignty in Africa said: “The answer is to put family farmers and local food economies at the centre of food policy, by investing in agroecology, strengthening farmer-managed seed systems, and supporting territorial markets. Food sovereignty is not just an aspiration, it is the pathway to ending hunger.”

IPES said the world was now “nowhere near” ending hunger by 2030 or achieving any of its seven global nutrition targets.

“Healthy diets are becoming a luxury for billions, while farmers are paid less and consumers pay more,” said Raj Patel, a professor at the University of Texas at Austin.

“That isn’t an accident – it’s the result of a food system where a handful of powerful traders, processors, and retailers set the prices and pocket the profits. You cannot lower the cost of a healthy diet without asking who profits from an unhealthy one.”