Latest signs of more contraction in breeding herds
Traders without firm guidance
Ambiguous messages continue emerging from EU pig industries and markets, leaving traders without clear guidance on when or even whether to expect a decisive swing in the cycle to tight supply and high prices throughout Europe.
Latest signs are of more contraction in breeding herds, but these are not conclusive evidence cyclical scarcity will prevail over structural surplus.
The cautious tone of MLC's most recent commentary is notable: citing a sharp fall in the number of young breeding stock on Dutch farms shown by April census results, it warns slaughterings in the third and fourth quarters of this year will nevertheless still "correspond to the record production of 24 million head in 1996".
The April tally in Belgium has also shown a heavy fall in young stock numbers, and a similar steep decline is reported from Ireland. But the contractions are most marked among animals intended for breeding meaning the numbers of pigs still in the production 'pipeline' are surprisingly high.
This distinction is particularly striking in the huge Spanish industry, where 'maiden gilt' numbers are down nearly 12% but the pregnant sow and gilt herds were still much bigger in April than a year previously.
Overall the impression is of output certain to fall (as is already apparent in some Continental slaughter statistics). However, the timing is slipping from late 1999 into early next year. The same is true in the US, with implications for EU prices via export markets.
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