Supermarkets took 74p of every £1 spent on food and drink in the third quarter, the latest instalment of The Grocer’s Share of Stomach Index shows.
Shoppers spent £47.08bn on food and drink in the three months to 30 September 2026, up 3% on the same period last year.
The supermarkets’ share of spend rose from 73.1% to 73.9%, the biggest gain of any channel. Grocery spending growth also accelerated for the third consecutive quarter, from 2.7% in Q1 and 3.5% in Q2 to 4.1% in Q3. Spend across the other 10 categories combined was flat at £12.3bn.
“The food and drink market is facing a ruthless consumer, as persistent cost of living pressures force households to rethink where every pound goes,” said Nicholas Found, head of commercial content at Retail Economics.
“Supermarkets are gaining ground as households seek greater value and control over food budgets, supported by stronger premium own-label ranges, dine-in offers and convenient meal solutions.”
High-end restaurants recorded the steepest decline as consumers remained budget-conscious, with spend dropping 11.1%.
The next biggest fall came from specialist fast grocery merchants, where spend fell 6.0%, although the figures do not capture grocery orders placed through platforms such as Deliveroo and Uber Eats.
The fastest rise once again came from coffee and bakery chains, with growth at Starbucks Coffee, Pret a Manger and Gail’s Bakery even further ahead of the category’s 7.1% total.
The index is based on analysis of Spendmapper data, which records all card transactions of 180,000 consumers across 750 retailers, restaurants, bars and cafés.
Harvir Dhillon, lead economist at the BRC, said: “Households appear to be swapping the restaurant table for the kitchen table. High-end dining took the biggest hit this summer, while budget and mid-tier restaurants also slipped back. Grocery made gains from most channels, at a time of year when eating out normally wins.
“With food inflation set to climb between now and the end of the year, and rise further into 2027, the squeeze on household budgets will only tighten.”
Spending in bars and pubs fell for the third quarter in a row, although the rate of decline eased. Spending dipped by 1.2% year on year in the third quarter, which included the 2026 World Cup, compared with a sharper decline of 3.9% in Q2 and 6.9% in Q1.
Allen Simpson, chief executive of UKHospitality, said: “These figures highlight the continued pressure on consumer spending and the impact it is having across hospitality. We know people still prioritise out of home experiences with their spending, but many households are continuing to make careful choices as living costs remain high.
“Hospitality has huge potential to drive growth, jobs and investment, but businesses need the right conditions to do so. The sector has one of the highest tax burdens in the economy, so it’s vital we see action at the budget both to reduce the cost of doing business for operators and ease the cost of living pressures for consumers.”
GLP-1 weight-loss treatments are adding a new structural pressure to food and drink consumption, Found added.
“Smaller portions and fewer courses have significant implications for operators reliant on higher spending per head, compounding existing pressure on hospitality,” he said, with coffee and bakery chains “hitting the sweet spot between affordability, convenience and everyday indulgence”.
He concluded: “As we enter the crucial golden quarter, competition for share of stomach will intensify. The strongest performers will be those offering a compelling blend of value, convenience and affordable indulgence, as consumers become increasingly selective about where they spend.”
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