The World Cup is unlikely to deliver the “bumper” uplift in grocery spend supermarkets might be expecting, new analysis from Circana has warned.
Cost of living pressures, heavy promotions, as well as shoppers deciding to spend more time at home due to the late kick-off times, mean shoppers are unlikely to spend “much more” on food and drink during the tournament compared with previous years, Circana said.
The consumer insights firm analysed spend data from Euro 2024, the last time England and Scotland appeared at a major football tournament. England also reached the final, so therefore played the maximum number of games.
It found that sales of beer and snacks – some of the lines upon which retailers typically bank as volume drivers during major events – only rose slightly compared with a regular period.
The amount of off-trade beer and lager sold grew by 0.9% year on year that summer, with spending up 1.1% compared with 2023. Crisps and snacks volumes rose by 1.4%, but due to heavy promotions actual spend increased by just 0.5%.
Both rises were behind the long-term trends for both categories.
“The excitement around England and Scotland games should boost beer and snack retail sales, but the tournament is landing just as the cost of living situation worsens and more shoppers are looking to manage their grocery spend,” said Alex Lawrence, senior strategic insight director for UK CPG at Circana.
“Even the most ardent fans will look to trade down to cheaper products, buy on promotion and hold back on the beers just a little,” Lawrence added.
“The danger for brands is that they may sell more product but give away too much value through discounts to deliver year-on-year value sales growth.”
Circana’s data is at odds with other spend trackers, like a May report from GlobalData, which predicted World Cup fever could deliver a £2.9bn boost to British retailers. It is also dependent on trade following the same pattern as Euro 2024.
Regardless, retailers are still hoping to cash in on England and Scotland’s participation in what is set to be the longest World Cup to date, after the competition was expanded to 48 teams from 32 previously.
While they are anticipating less footfall into stores as shoppers shift away from the large gatherings as a result of the late kick off due to time differences in the US, retailers are expecting an increase in their on-demand channels as shoppers favour in-the-moment spending, with Asda, Ocado and Co-op among those to have extended their on-demand delivery opening hours.
Supermarkets nil, pubs one
Circana’s read was not all negative. While supermarkets might not see a boost, if Euro 2024 trade patterns are repeated pubs and hospitality companies are likely to enjoy a windfall.
There were six million more visits throughout June and July 2024. It led to a 10% increase in the number of pints and 18% rise in glasses of wine during the tournament, according to Circana Crest data.
“Pub, bar and restaurant visits have fallen by 2% in the last year so the tournament could generate some much much-needed footfall this summer,” said Seton Leung, head of UK foodservice at Circana.
“People are watching what they spend, but major games could still persuade people out to the pub, particularly if England and Scotland do well and operators make the most of extended opening hours to turn any excitement into more visits, social occasions and sales.”
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