Oil 2025: Oil demand rebounds as prices settle

The oils category took a huge hit last year, when soaring wholesale prices for olive oil caused retail prices to rocket, leading to a 13.2% slump in volume sales.

Prices have since settled. The weighted average price of European extra virgin olive oil fell 49.3% to €4.59 per kilo between January and November this year, data from commodities analyst Expana shows.

That’s revived shopper demand for edible oils. Volumes are down just 0.6% this year – and average price per kilo is down 2.4%. Brands, however, are 7% dearer as a whole.

A few have been able to reflect the more favourable commodity picture with lower prices. Market leader Filippo Berio, for example, is 11.3% cheaper on average.

As such, its sales have rebounded. In 2024’s Top Products, we reported a 28.8% fall in the brand’s volumes. This year, it has recorded a 37.3% rise in kilos – which has been instrumental in a £14.4m gain. In a “big win”, household penetration is up 54% year on year, says Walter Zanre,the brand’s UK MD.

Filippo Berio “got the jump on most of our competitors” as wholesale oil prices eased, helped by supermarket promotions, Zanre adds. Growth was also supported by two waves of TV ads over the course of 2025.

KTC and Napolina have also added volumes – by 2.6% and 23.2% respectively – after cutting average prices.

The progress of KTC, which is 4.3% cheaper on average per kilo, reflects “the strength of our partnerships and the alignment we have maintained with our customers, despite the volatility of the past year”, says CEO Paresh Mehta.

Not every brand can say the same. Take Frylight from Saputo Dairy UK. Its volumes have plunged 20.4% and value sales are down 11.7%, while its oils are 11% more expensive.

Inflationary pressures are still “impacting consumer spending as shoppers trade down”, concedes Al Flynn, Frylight senior brand manager.

However, the brand has enjoyed a “dramatic sales turnaround” since July, when Frylight unveiled new branding and packaging that’s 9% lighter, helping it cut plastic use by 20 tonnes a year, Flynn stresses

There was another bump in the road during the autumn, as the market experienced shortages of extra virgin olive oil, points out Zanre. That forced Filippo Berio to “ease back on promotions to manage supply and availability”.

Wholesale prices remain “firm in Spain due to strong demand, which is still exceeding supply”, he adds. However, the market expects extra virgin olive oil prices to ease in 2026 when the full flow of new season production is available.

Which could, ultimately, lead to a steadier supply of lower prices for shoppers.