The clocks went back on Saturday but gloom has been gathering on the grocery sector for a while - if you’re inclined to look.
Last week we reported on Nielsen figures revealing sluggish sales growth at three of the big four supermarkets: in the 12 weeks to 13 October, Morrisons’ sales were up just 0.1%, while Tesco sales grew 0.3% and Asda’s 0.6%. Tough questions are set to be asked of all three – not least Tesco, which doesn’t yet seem to be reaping the rewards of its £1bn store revamp programme.
Earlier this month, the BRC warned of a decline in like-for-like food sales in September, and a 2.4% drop in footfall it blamed on “pre-Christmas caution”.
Now the CBI has chimed in, reporting that high-street sales stalled in October, with grocers among the worst affected. Its Distributive Trades Survey of 125 companies, released yesterday, found that grocers reported a 17% fall in sales volumes year-on-year – the first such fall in eight months.
The balance of respondents in the retail sector saying sales were up as opposed to down was just +2% – well below CBI expectations of +31%.
“Although the high-street recovery stalled this month, there is optimism that it was just a blip on the previous run of three months’ growth,” said Barry Williams, CBI chair and Asda chief merchandising officer for food.
Blip it may be. Either way, the response of some retailers has been to advertise their way out of a tight spot. UK supermarkets’ overall spend on advertising rose 14% year-on-year for the four weeks to 12 October [Nielsen], with Morrisons outspending its rivals.
But it’s hard to disguise the fact that – after a benign, hot summer – September and October have been a tough couple of months. Christmas can’t come soon enough.
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