Buyers will be offered plenty of product from Ireland, Europe and Latin America British beef production is now almost certain to remain sharply reduced next year and could fall further in 2003, but the lower output will not necessarily keep prices strong. Due to FMD commercial slaughterings of cattle for the meat market were about 10% lower in the UK in January-May than in the corresponding period last year. Relaxation of movement restrictions has given abattoir operators easier access to cattle but the kill remains slightly down on a year ago. Before the disease epidemic disrupted the industry, most market analysts including MLC economists had expected a modest increase in production this year, mainly because quite large numbers of young bulls would have been coming through from the dairy sector into the manufacturing beef market. Although some of the obstacles formerly preventing stock reaching the abattoirs have now been removed, new supply constraints are becoming visible on the farms. The various culling programmes designed to halt the spread of FMD and solve animal welfare problems have obviously eroded the supply base, taking out breeding and store cattle originally intended for serving the meat market, but probably more important are the continuing movement restrictions that mean many of the remaining beasts are in the wrong places. Older cattle barred from the food chain and destined only for destruction through the Over Thirty Month Scheme are eating scarce feed on some farms, while on other units with plenty of grazing or feeding capacity producers cannot restock. The consequence, according to a preliminary forecast from the National Beef Association, will be prime cattle production next year 11% lower than in 2000, probably implying tighter supply than in the current year, with a further 4% drop in 2003. However, overall EU production and consumption prospects still look uncomfortable, suggesting UK buyers will be offered plenty of product by continental and Irish suppliers, along with possibly increasing tonnages from South America. {{M/E MEAT }}

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