It’s difficult to know who has the harder job right now: buyers tasked with keeping prices down amid the cost of living onslaught, or suppliers, trying to push them through. It’s remorseless: on the one hand Asda and Morrisons joined the price war this week, with new initiatives on 500 and 100 lines respectively.
On the other, Unilever results this week showed it put up prices by 8%, with the promise of more to come. That’s having a material impact on sales, and it won’t be alone there (in contrast with Nestlé, which has somehow pushed price increases through while maintaining growth).
Sainsbury’s sales are also down in its latest results, even on a two-year basis, in line with big four rivals, but while the discounters make hay, it’s determined to hang on to their coat-tails. That’s tough given its model, and shareholders’ short-term expectations, but it’s hard to argue with Sainsbury’s results: not only ahead of expectations at £730m but with profits next year forecast still to be higher than any year since 2013/14.
So who holds the power here in this retailer-supplier axis? At the top of the food supply chain, retailers historically looked to suppliers for support, but that will be harder to muster, especially for those with negative growth and stock in short supply. That puts the emphasis on free cashflow generation, cost-saving programmes, alongside product and promo mix.
As to delaying tactics we’ve seen in negotiations, it’s the sheer volume of claims, Groceries Code Adjudicator Mark White claimed in an interview at the UK Food & Drink Shows this week, that was mostly to blame, rather than the code itself.
And White also insisted the 12-week notice period was a myth so far as the code was concerned (a price cut could be implemented in as little as 48 hours, he claimed), adding there was enough flexibility in the code to hold buyers to account without an amendment. He also painted a nuanced picture, pointing out suppliers were running up against problems of their own making through previous agreements.
One thing is for sure: the results of the latest GCA survey, out in June, will be fascinating.
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