Beef prices are set to continue to rise until at least the early part of next year, industry experts have warned.
According to latest data from levy board AHDB, beef is 17% dearer year-on-year on average, with volumes down by 8.3% across the category at the same time [Worldpanel, 12 w/e 7 September 2025].
Retail price inflation has been steadily rising throughout the beef category over the course of 2025 and is showing no signs of slowing down, even if there is “competitive pricing around Christmas” to secure footfall, suggested Tony Goodger, head of communications at the Association of Independent Meat Suppliers.
“What you’re going to see is continued price rises in red meat and poultry but there will come a point where there has to be some sort of price correction,” he said, but warned that was not likely to be in the next few months.
A price correction could be driven by oversupply and a drop in demand or more people switching out of the category, he said.
However, straw shortages due to the hot weather could further limit red meat supply, which is already forecast to be down by 4% this year by AHDB. Latest data from the levy board showed that the price for straw had increased by 19% for barley straw and 18% for wheat straw compared to September 2024.
AHDB warned these prices would continue to rise as supply tightened further over the winter months.
“While it’s normally difficult to make a direct correlation between the price of straw and the beef price, one consequence of the straw shortage could be that farmers start to sell animals earlier at lower weights,” said Nick Allen, CEO of the British Meat Processors Association. “This could further contract the supply and push prices up.”
He added that this extra cost for farmers would be harder to pass on to the supply chain, especially considering the lower demand for beef.
“Unfortunately, the new government support mechanisms can discourage food production, especially if world commodity prices drop to levels where it’s uneconomical for farmers to produce,” said Allen. “That has happened with the wheat price this year and will be partly responsible for less wheat being grown.
“It illustrates the delicate balance that must be struck to preserve the UK’s food security.”
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