Consumer sentiment inched up for the third month in a row in September, continuing its recovery from April’s low of –25 and reaching the highest point in two years.
Headline confidence scores rose by one point to –13, as shoppers’ perception of the past 12 months’ economic situation mellowed, according to GfK’s monthly barometer.
The largest gains came from a four-point uplift in shoppers’ perception of the UK economy over the past 12 months, and a three-point rise in their opinion of their own financial situation in that time.
Forward-looking metrics rose by just one point, with shoppers’ estimation of their personal finances rising to +5.
September marked the first point since summer 2024 that the survey registered three consecutive monthly increases in the overall index score.
GfK warned the recovery may be short-lived, however, as a return to hostilities between the US, Israel and Iran pushed oil prices back up to highs last seen in June.
Food inflation is still yet to factor in the previous spike in oil and gas prices, tightening of fertiliser supply and supply chain disruption caused by the previous bout of fighting between the warring nations, with the FDF and IGD predicting a peak of around 6% in mid-2027 before a plateau above 5% through into 2028.
“The return of higher inflation removes one of the strongest positives [for consumer sentiment] seen in previous months,” said GfK consumer insights director Neil Bellamy.
“So, while the headline score continues to improve, confidence is still firmly in negative territory. With inflation, energy and fuel prices rising, we could soon see consumer sentiment falter.”
A separate tracker of consumer confidence by BRC-Opinium has already registered a “stumble” in sentiment as consumers braced themselves for financial hardship.
Expectations for the state of the economy over the next three months worsened in September, falling from –28 to –34.
“Consumer confidence in the economy stumbled after four months of improvement, with a similar trend for sentiment around personal finances,” said BRC CEO Helen Dickinson.
“This decline was much sharper among women, and with households bracing for a sharp rise in energy costs this winter, and bills rising faster than shop prices, it is little surprise that expectations of retail spending fell, even as overall spending plateaued.”
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