Dairy volumes likely to fall as feed supply is hit by drought

Milk supply is expected to fall in the coming months in the wake of a rapidly escalating shortage of grass and silage.

Dairy farmers were already having to feed cows inside earlier than normal due to the lack of grass caused by drought, warned NFU dairy board chair Ian Harvey.

The weather conditions had left dairy farmers facing “a struggle” to keep producing milk, Harvey said this week, as grass had “stopped growing about six weeks ago and what grass we had at that point has been cut or grazed”. 

Cows typically graze outside until the middle of September, but it was now looking likely that more would have to be fed inside from this month, he added. And without proper feed, the volume of milk supplied was expected to fall as a result.

“There’s a hope we will get rain, and when we do, the grass will grow.” But if it did not, “we’ll have to recognise we won’t have enough forage for winter”, Harvey said.

The long-range forecast has suggested there could be no real rain until October, which would be “absolutely ­terrible”, he warned.

 In response, dairy farmers are having to buy in feed, which was an “extra expense” and could “turn out to be very expensive if other people are looking to buy that forage as well”. And if it cannot be sourced, cattle may soon have to be sold or culled, Harvey suggested.

“Farmgate prices came down very quickly when we had too much milk, but they’re [only] crawling up now we haven’t got enough,” said Harvey. “At these moments if we had a little extra money for the milk, we could do that deal with a forage merchant.” 

Harvey said although milk prices had started to rise – Freshways, Müller and Arla’s, among others have risen – farmers were looking for more support and fairness.

“We saw a lot of co-operation in the industry to help the processors deal with distressed milk volumes and I think farmers are now looking for a little bit of co-operation from the milk processors at a time when it looks like there could be a little bit of extra money in the market,” he added.

Richard Collins, agriculture director at Müller Milk & Ingredients, said: “After many months where collections of raw milk continued to rise and market prices continued to fall, we are pleased to be in a position to increase our farmgate milk price for September, ensuring our supplying farmers continue to receive a competitive price.

“As always, supply and demand is continuing to be tracked closely.”