Supplies of fruit & veg are critically exposed to climate change, with a continued (and rising) dependency on imports creating a “significant risk” to UK food security, a new study has found.
The UK imported some 47% of its veg and 84% of its fruit in 2024 – making it “highly dependent” on external sources of fresh produce and leaving it at the mercy of international growing conditions, warned Climate Change and Fresh Food Security: Assessing Risks and Building Resilience in the UK, compiled by sustainability consultancy Aethr Associates in collaboration with the Fresh Produce Consortium.
Fresh produce imports to the UK from countries such as Spain (up 32%), South Africa (up 32%), Morocco (up 289%) and Peru (up 37%) had all risen by significant margins from 2019 to 2024, the report revealed.
These four countries, alongside the Netherlands, Poland, Egypt, Italy, Belgium and Turkey, represented 64% of the UK’s total fruit & veg imports.
‘Extreme water stress’
However, temperatures were expected to rise by an average of 16% in the top 10 exporters by 2050, while 72% of their total produce output was projected to face “extreme water stress, significantly increasing the risk of failed harvests and price volatility”.
Spain, the number one source of imported fruit & veg, was expected to go from nine ‘hot days’ (when the average 24-hour temperature exceeds 35°C) every year to 20. Peru’s number of hot days was expected to increase by 1,000%, meanwhile, moving from one to 11 days a year.
Changing diets and consumer expectations of year-round supply had driven the UK’s increasing reliance on imported fresh produce over the past century, the report said, with the past three decades also seeing a “marked increase in the consumption of exotic produce like avocados, mangoes and pineapples”.
But given the climate challenges faced by the top 10 exporters, action needed to be taken now to address the the vulnerability of UK fruit & veg supply chains to climate change, its authors urged.
With 2023 confirmed as the hottest year on record, and 22 July 2024 the hottest day ever recorded globally, “the risk of more frequent and severe extreme weather is no longer abstract. Importers must prepare for increasingly frequent heatwaves, droughts, and flooding in supplier regions,” the report argued.
“Even the slightest change in climate conditions could bring significant challenges for producers that could disrupt this supply chain,” it added.
“How we balance the risks presented by climate change across our domestic and imported supply of fresh food demands a proactive approach to deliver resilience,” said report co-author Richard Bonn of Aethr Associates.
“Climate change and the projections over the next 25 years are really important, and growers need to ensure that existing crop production methods can withstand the climate of 2050 and beyond.”
Mitigation plans
The report called on UK importers to evaluate where their exposure lies and to work closely with growers and suppliers to create mitigation plans.
“Solutions may involve enhancing water storage, moderating the impacts of extreme temperatures, strengthening flood defences, and planting climate-resilient crop varieties,” Bonn added. “Ultimately, success will depend on our ability to adapt through forward-thinking investment in infrastructure and innovation.
“And while our latest report focuses on imports, the risk doesn’t stop at the border. UK-grown produce will also be affected by rising temperatures and water stress. We need to prepare across the board to build a food system that can withstand predicted climate changes.”
Climate change was “already reshaping the fresh produce sector, from tougher growing conditions to disrupted supply chains”, said FPC technical director Kelly Shields. “Like Aethr, we believe this sector is incredibly adaptable to change; it just needs to fully understand that change first.”
Responding to the report, Ali Capper, executive chair of British Apples & Pears, said she welcomed its highlighting of the impact climate change would have on imports.
However, the grower group was “disappointed that it did not present the equivalent climate evidence for the UK, which would have pointed to the potential for higher – not lower – agricultural yields at home”.
While apple production globally would be directly affected by climate change, the UK was not predicted to be as badly affected, Capper argued.
“Regions of the world that have been big apple growers will increasingly struggle to produce a decent quality or quantity of apples. In contrast, British apple growers, are at a clear advantage. They can mitigate any risk associated with climate change by investing in new varieties that grow well in future climate conditions. Excess rain and flooding can also be addressed by investment in good drainage to maintain tree health.”
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