Good retail butchers have adjusted and adapted'
Specialist meat traders have staunched their loss of sales to the supermarkets and could now begin to show some volume growth.
Such a prediction is often heard during food safety scares, so the optimism voiced by ANM chief Brian Pack at the British Society of Animal Production conference came as little surprise.
"Good retail butchers have adjusted and adapted and are strengthening their place in the market," Pack claimed.
Precedent is not in Pack's favour, consumption data showing supermarkets have continued to increase carcase meat volume and expenditure share despite occasional statistical blips encouraging the independents.
However Pack can point to the recent very strong trading performance of producer controlled ANM's processor Scotch Premier, unusual among first division slaughterers in keeping its focus on independents and the catering sector, as evidence of the market structure stabilising.
Other signs suggesting some independents are consolidating effectively and profitably can be detected among the few remaining depot wholesalers.
Yet consumer spending on lightly processed carcase meat has fallen much more heavily than most of the supermarkets' critics realise.
This could be interpreted as justifying policies favouring the quicker, cheaper production of manufacturing grade beef for the newer consumer choices such as flavoured grillsteaks and ready meals.
But Pack is well aware of the demand shift, ANM's Yorkshire Premier having pioneered raw material supply for ready meal makers and Scotch Premier noting the bias to lower grade meat in parts of the out of home market, and still he insists there is an unsatisfied need for high quality beef.
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