Supermarkets risk losing out on billions if they fail to seize the plant-based market, new research has found.
Systems change company Systemiq and plant-based NGO ProVeg International said UK retailers risked missing out on a £2.8bn incremental growth opportunity as alternative protein revenue was expected to double.
It their new report, Taking Root: The Case for Plant-Based Proteins in UK Retail, the organisations revealed that alternative protein revenue is projected to reach approximately £5.5bn by 2040, with plant-based protein sales expected to grow from 14% in 2025 to 29% by 2040.
The UK is lagging behind its European counterparts with 82% of private label processed meat compared with 15% in alternative proteins. The report suggested that “addressing this imbalance would not only unlock growth but also strengthen retailers’ ability to shape category development and improve overall profitability”.
Meanwhile in the Netherlands, the seven largest retailers have achieved a 41.6% plant-based, 58.4% animal-based protein split across their portfolios.
“The UK’s under-indexed private label penetration in alternative proteins represents a massive opportunity cost,” said ProVeg International partnerships director Joanna Trewern. “Closing this gap allows retailers to capture a share of a market projected to reach £5.5bn by 2040 while insulating margins from conventional supply chain volatility.”
She continued: “Protein diversification is now a fundamental requirement for long-term value creation.”
Systemiq and ProVeg said protein diversification could act as a hedge against animal protein supply chain volatility; cut greenhouse gas emissions and water usage; and boost fibre content. It would also generate £108m in associated public health benefits.
They also asserted price parity between meat-alternatives and processed meat would be achieved by 2028, removing a major structural barrier to mass-market adoption.
“The winners will be those who treat the protein shift as a core financial and operational priority, not just a sustainability metric,” asserted Systemiq partner Rupert Simons.
They come as 25 groups including ProVeg International, Madre Brava, World Resources Institute and WWF called on retailers to drive plant-rich sales across Europe at an event in Berlin.
In line with the Eat-Lancet Planetary Health Diet, the coalition has urged retailers to measure, disclose, target and act on the balance between plant-based and animal-based food sales, with clear benchmarks.
They said 60% of total food sales needed to be plant-based by 2035, with at least 33% of sales within protein categories plant-based and dairy sales capped at no more than 29% of total food sales.
“This is a clear, united call from civil society, asking supermarkets to act now in a way that will provide their customers with healthy, affordable food and bring down the sector’s emissions,” WWF Switzerland corporate sustainability senior manager Mariella Meyer said.
“It’s clear there is a huge appetite for action and great interest in being part of the solution,” added Nico Muzi, chief programmes officer at Madre Brava. “Civil society groups are challenging the supermarkets, but we’re also saying ‘we can support you in this shift’.”
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