Supermarkets suffered a sales slowdown in October as hard-pressed shoppers reined in spending ahead of Black Friday and Christmas shopping deals, according to the latest data from NIQ.
Total till sales at the grocers increased just 3.2% in the four weeks to 1 November, compared to growth of 4.1% registered in September.
NIQ said the annual Black Friday event at the end of November will be “even more important” than usual to kickstart shopper spending.
Data showed 45% of households took part in Black Friday in 2024, and it is now regarded as one of the biggest online shopping days across fmcg and wider e-commerce.
“The slowdown in growth in the last four weeks was not helped by continued inflation, fragile consumer confidence and a generally mild October, and any discretionary spending power has not translated into extra food and drink sales at food retailers during the Halloween half-term,” said Mike Watkins, head of retailer and business insight at NIQ.
“And the mood music around possible tax rises in the November budget may not have helped sentiment either.”
In-store supermarket visits were up by 3.9% last month as retailers continued to entice shoppers with loyalty scheme price cuts, with the amount of the shopping basket purchased on promotion making up 24% of sales.
The only categories with unit growth during the month were dairy (+1.6%), meat, fish and poultry (+1.4%), and fresh produce (+0.4%).
In confectionery, volumes fell by 3.1%, despite Halloween being a typical time for shoppers to indulge in sweet treats, and the 4.4% uplift in value sales was primarily driven by inflation.
Ocado (+13.8%) remained the fastest-growing retailer, while Sainsbury’s (+5.5%) and Tesco (+4.8%) continued to increase market share, widening the gap with Asda (where sales fell 6.5%) and Morrisons (+1.9%).
Momentum continued to grow at a strong pace for Waitrose (+4.8%) and M&S (+9.6%).
Sales at Lidl (+10.7%) grew ahead of Aldi (+4.4%), with both discounters expected to maintain strong sales growth with more new stores opening in the last months of 2025.
“The upside is that whilst shoppers are economising, they are not compromising,” Watkins added.
“With a weakness in out-of-home spend, shoppers are likely to ‘dine in home’ more which means food retailers are likely to see strong growth in premium private-label ranges in the next few weeks.
“NIQ sees food sales growth continuing at current levels for the rest of November, but we expect sales to accelerate in early December and it will depend on the success of the current advertising campaigns to encourage shoppers to spend more, as well as the impact of Black Friday in diverting some spend.”
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