The phones have barely stopped ringing since The Grocer broke news of the soaring price of wheat, animal feed and silage, and the possibility of a ban on Russian wheat exports has captured the media's imagination.
Unfortunately, imagination has been allowed to run riot, with ill-informed speculation blaming population growth and the rise of a new Chinese and Indian middle class. Sorry guys, but this is a story about now, not 2050, and it's the supply side, and specifically weather, that is driving prices up.
A drought in Russia, the appalling floods in Pakistan, even in the case of silage our own warm summer have been responsible for supply shortages.
But here's some good news. And once again it's weather-related. As we said last month and as we've told the media caution was needed before any calculations about food price inflation were made, as the price of British wheat, which provides 80% of the UK's needs, isn't necessarily related to what's going on in Russia, the Ukraine, or Canada, the US or other producers for that matter.
And the British wheat crop is looking good. Despite previous scare stories about low yields due to drought-like conditions, the recent rains (coinciding with my staycation, but that's another story), have been a shot in the arm for quality, while yields are also better than previously expected.
With UK spot prices up 46% on the back of all the speculation, perhaps now is the time to allay fears of yet more rampant food price inflation. As we said in our blog earlier this week, confusion and ill-informed comment have the potential to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
In the meantime, UK farmers must be licking their lips, and slapping their thighs.
Unfortunately, imagination has been allowed to run riot, with ill-informed speculation blaming population growth and the rise of a new Chinese and Indian middle class. Sorry guys, but this is a story about now, not 2050, and it's the supply side, and specifically weather, that is driving prices up.
A drought in Russia, the appalling floods in Pakistan, even in the case of silage our own warm summer have been responsible for supply shortages.
But here's some good news. And once again it's weather-related. As we said last month and as we've told the media caution was needed before any calculations about food price inflation were made, as the price of British wheat, which provides 80% of the UK's needs, isn't necessarily related to what's going on in Russia, the Ukraine, or Canada, the US or other producers for that matter.
And the British wheat crop is looking good. Despite previous scare stories about low yields due to drought-like conditions, the recent rains (coinciding with my staycation, but that's another story), have been a shot in the arm for quality, while yields are also better than previously expected.
With UK spot prices up 46% on the back of all the speculation, perhaps now is the time to allay fears of yet more rampant food price inflation. As we said in our blog earlier this week, confusion and ill-informed comment have the potential to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
In the meantime, UK farmers must be licking their lips, and slapping their thighs.
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