Commodity pressures in bread have finally hit home in the past month, with the prices of bakery lines rising by 2.7% on average. Elinor Zuke reports


The prices of key bakery lines have finally begun to reflect the global wheat shortage rising for the first time since April.

On average, bakery lines have increased 2.7% in price month-on-month at the big four. The biggest hikes have been at Sainsbury's (3.6%) and Morrisons (3.4%), followed by Asda (2.6%) and Tesco (1.4%). Waitrose prices, meanwhile, have risen 1.6% as it attempts to keep the price of many branded goods in line with Tesco.

Bakery prices had been falling since May, with September bringing the sharpest fall to date (1.4%) as supermarkets ran promotions on everyday essentials. Even this month's price hikes have not been sufficient to bring bakery prices back to the levels recorded in March on average, the category is still 1% cheaper than it was then.

Eight bread brands have, however, hit their highest price since The Grocer began tracking an extended basket in March. The sharpest rises this month was in the price of Hovis products, with its Best of Both loaves up 12p month-on-month in September to £1.14 (11.8%), while its soft white bread rose by 14p to £1.13 (14.1%). However, own-label loaves have remained at a steady average of 74p.

The average price of chilled products at the big four has risen 5.2% month-on-month as the heavy promotions seen in the category in September came to an end. The chilled market has also been hit by inflation, and prices are now 6% above March levels.

Fruit and veg has continued to fall in price across the big four, however, by an average of 1.7% on last month. Sainsbury's has led the pack in terms of price drops and is 4.1% cheaper than September.

Prices in the frozen category have dropped by 1.8% month-on-month on average, with the biggest decreases at Asda (4.8%) and Tesco (2.9%).

In terms of overall retailer basket prices, Waitrose's has been the only one to fall considerably this month, with prices 1.3% lower than in September as its pledge to match Tesco on 1,000 branded items took effect. The retailer reduced the average price of products in 12 of the 15 categories monitored. This was particularly marked in the chilled category where counter to the activity seen at its rivals prices have fallen 4.1% month-on-month.

Sainsbury's prices were 0.3% less than last month, while the biggest average increases were at Morrisons (0.7%) and Tesco (0.4%).